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SCP-2838 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-2838
Expected annual
$28.0M
One-time setup
$122.8M
Annual recurring
$27.5M
Personnel
83
One-time capital/setup estimated at approximately $122.8M driven primarily by subterranean construction, contingency reserves and specialized equipment; recurring annual costs ~ $27.5M driven by staff wages, aircraft interdiction/logistics, concealment/observation operations and depreciation/replacement reserves.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $122.8M
Facilities $66.7M
[#1, #2, #3, #15, #19, #24, #31] Includes land acquisition, underground facility construction, surface observatory & cover facilities, morgue fitout, roads/helipad construction, on-site clinic/morgue and artifact display fitout.
Escalation Contingency $20.0M
[#34] Large one-time rapid-response reserve for escalation, evacuation or large-scale remediation.
Equipment $16.7M
[#4, #7, #9, #13, #14, #20, #21, #22] Includes power generation hardware (generators/solar/batteries), tethered aerostats/UAV procurements, radar/ADS-B systems, robotics/probe hardware, CCTV/sensor installs, secure comms hardware, microsatellite procurement, and drone fleet procurement.
Contingency Reserve $10.0M
[#25] One-time contingency/reserve for clandestine payoff, remediation or major legal settlements as advised.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $8.3M
[#12, #16, #18, #26] Laboratory buildout and scientific instrumentation (telescopes, spectrometers, cryogenic/vacuum gear), archaeological conservation labs and storage, initial exhumation/reburial program setup, and HPC cluster procurement.
Community Goodwill Fund $500K
[#17] Initial goodwill/community development fund to establish local cover and reduce risk of interference.
Airspace Control Legal $300K
[#5] One-time legal/setup fees to establish restricted airspace, NOTAMs and initial diplomatic coordination.
Environmental Assessment $200K
[#23] One-time environmental impact studies and mitigation planning prior to construction.
Branding And Install $60K
[#30] One-time cover branding/installation costs for the faux observatory/NGO cover.
Executive Summary Estimate $0
[#35] Executive summary / ballpark reference (no additional charge; summary encapsulated elsewhere).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $27.5M/yr
Depreciation Replacement Reserve $8.6M/yr
[#33] Annual set-aside for asset replacement and depreciation (approx. 7% of initial capital value).
Staff Wages $6.2M/yr
[#10, #11, #14, #15, #24] Salaries and benefits for security/QRF, research scientists, technical staff, monitoring/morgue staff and on-site medical personnel (detailed breakdown in personnel section).
Logistics And Transport $4.9M/yr
[#6, #19, #22] Aircraft interdiction operating costs (rotorcraft leases/crews/maintenance/fuel), vehicle fleet maintenance and drone ops for perimeter/burial-site patrols.
Administrative Overhead $2.0M/yr
[#32] Administrative support (procurement/HR/accounting) calculated at ~12% of base recurring budget per #32 guidance.
Research And Monitoring $1.4M/yr
[#7, #9, #12, #14, #16, #21, #26, #23] Ongoing ops for persistent aerial observation, radar/ADS-B monitoring, instrument calibration, CCTV monitoring ops, archaeology conservation/curation, commercial satellite tasking and HPC/software licenses & ops; includes robotics testing ops.
Cover Story And Legal $1.1M/yr
[#5, #17, #25, #29, #30] Ongoing diplomatic/liaison payments, community relations, insurance premiums/legal reserves, counterintelligence/opsec and public-relations/cover outputs.
Visual Concealment Ops $1.0M/yr
[#8] Continuous visual concealment operations (cloud seeding, aerosol screens, projection systems) to obscure SCP-2838.
Facilities Maintenance $900K/yr
[#2, #3, #19, #31] Maintenance for underground facility systems (HVAC, life support), surface observatory upkeep, road/helipad maintenance and museum/exhibit maintenance.
Supplies And Consumables $650K/yr
[#12, #15, #18, #27] Lab consumables/calibration, morgue supplies and embalming materials, exhumation per-burial costs and specialized PPE/consumables.
Power Ops $400K/yr
[#4] Fuel, maintenance and operations for microgrid (diesel, battery upkeep, solar array maintenance).
Training Rotations $400K/yr
[#10, #28] Regular mountain survival, containment procedure training, rotations and hazard pay/rotation costs to mitigate burnout.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $27.5M/yr
92.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with no major incidents; all systems functioning and routine maintenance/operations only.
routine_operations no_major_incidents
🚨 Minor Incident $29.5M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Localized equipment failure or targeted vandalism requiring replacement hardware and short-term surge labor.
equipment_failure localized_breach_or_damage
🚨 Major Breach $57.5M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$30.0M vs baseline
Aircraft collision or public exposure event requiring large-scale remediation, legal settlements, asset replacement and emergency operations.
aircraft_collision public_exposure large_scale_remediation
🚨 Political Exposure $32.5M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Local political pressure or loss of cover requiring accelerated payments, bribes, or larger diplomatic/legal engagement to maintain control.
local_political_pressure leak_or_inquiry
👥 Personnel 83 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / QRF 30 [#10] On-site armed guards and quick reaction force to cover 24/7 perimeter and respond to trespassers; higher remote-location premiums assumed.
Research Scientist 20 [#11, #26] Plasma physicists, astrophysicists and senior scientific staff conducting analysis and experiments.
Engineer / Technician 20 [#11, #12, #13] Instrument technicians, engineers, robotics/R&D staff and observatory technical operators.
Medical Officer 2 [#24] On-site medical staff for routine care and medevac coordination.
Administrative Staff 6 [#32] Procurement, HR, accounting and admin support consistent with 10–15% overhead guidance.
Observatory / Conservator / Curator 5 [#3, #16, #31] Staff for public-facing cover operations, artifact conservation and museum/display management.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are order-of-magnitude planning figures derived from analyst ranges; large uncertainty remains due to remote mountainous construction variability, political risks in Tajikistan, and technological uncertainty around concealment and retrieval efforts.
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