SCP-2951 Unknown ? low confidence
SCP-2951
Expected annual
$2.5M
One-time setup
$107.8M
Annual recurring
$2.3M
Personnel
9
Estimated one-time capital costs are dominated by contingency and potential dedicated facility construction (~$107.8M one-time). Recurring baseline operations (perimeter staff, monitoring, and MTF readiness) run roughly $2.276M per year, with staff wages and MTF readiness as the largest ongoing drivers.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $107.8M
Facilities $106.5M
[#1, #5, #8, #9, #20, #23, #24, #25] Site acquisition, perimeter installations, building stabilization, secondary-shaft bulkhead and seals, hazardous remediation, small containment vault, large excavation contingency, and a high-end dedicated containment facility capital cost.
Equipment $1.0M
[#4, #6, #7, #10, #11, #12, #13, #14, #18, #19, #21] Vehicle purchases, remote surveillance and sensors, site power hardware (solar/generator), environmental sensors, geotechnical/LiDAR gear, robotic exploration hardware, amnestic/enforcement equipment, medical/decon gear, communications hardware, secure data servers, and PPE provisioning.
Cover Story Setup $150K
[#17, #26] One-time legal/retainer costs and initial covert-liaison/cover-story setup costs.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $125K
[#16, #22] Initial research team setup and archival initiation plus SOP/curriculum development and initial training materials.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.3M/yr
Mtf Readiness $1.0M/yr
[#15] Mobile Task Force readiness overhead (maintaining trained rapid-response capability, equipment readiness, periodic exercises).
Staff Wages $600K/yr
[#3] Perimeter staffing (6 undercover agents) plus on-site supervision/administrative support salaries included in baseline wage costs.
Research And Monitoring $330K/yr
[#6, #10, #11, #12, #16, #18, #19, #22] Surveillance monitoring, environmental sensor calibration, seismic/geotechnical monitoring, robotic replacements/upgrades, ongoing research staff time and travel, communications airtime/maintenance, data storage/analyst time, and ongoing training/exercises tied to monitoring and SOPs.
Cover Story And Legal $150K/yr
[#17, #26] Recurring covert liaison, local influence payments, legal buffers, hidden insurance and PR contingencies.
Supplies And Consumables $80K/yr
[#13, #14, #21, #27] Amnestic replenishment and delivery supplies, medical/decon consumables, PPE replacements, and general consumables/field expenses.
Facilities Maintenance $66K/yr
[#2, #5, #7, #23] Property taxes and land management, perimeter upkeep, generator/fuel/site power maintenance, and vault upkeep.
Logistics And Transport $30K/yr
[#4, #27] Vehicle maintenance, fuel and routine transport-related recurring costs.
Annual Audit And Risk Reassessment $20K/yr
[#28] Yearly external/internal audit and risk reassessment to review containment posture.
Dedicated Containment Operations $0/yr
[#25] Recurring operating costs for a dedicated containment facility (item applicable only if escalation occurs; baseline set to 0).
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.3M/yr
85.9% probability / year
Normal year with passive containment: perimeter staffing, monitoring, maintenance, and readiness but no major incidents or excavation.
no breaches routine equipment attrition steady-state monitoring
🚨 Minor Incident $2.6M/yr
12.0% probability / year +$300K vs baseline
Localized incident or trespass that requires significant emergency response, equipment replacement, legal/amnestics deployment and short-term remediation.
civilian breach requiring amnestics localized anomalous activity damaging sensors small-scale contamination or equipment loss
🚨 Major Breach $8.3M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$6.0M vs baseline
Significant containment breach or anomalous escalation requiring heavy engineering, extended MTF operations, and major equipment replacement.
entrance collapse/reopening large-scale entity activity widespread equipment failure
🚨 Containment Deployment $107.3M/yr
0.1% probability / year +$105.0M vs baseline
Decision to construct and place anomalies into a dedicated containment facility (extreme escalation).
discovery of active contained entities decision to excavate/open primary entrance requirement for long-term active containment
👥 Personnel 9 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 6 [#3] Minimum covert perimeter staffing (2 per shift × 3 shifts).
Security Supervisor / Site Lead 1 [#3] On-site supervision and liaison for cover operations.
Engineer / Maintenance 1 [#4, #6, #7] Equipment, power and sensor maintenance and field repairs.
Administrative Staff 1 [#1, #17, #26] Administrative, legal coordination, and cover-story/accounting support included in baseline staff wages.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are order-of-magnitude with high uncertainty due to anomalous behavior, equipment attrition rates, site geology, and the substantial optional contingencies (excavation or dedicated facility). Historical incident data and exploration ban make probability and cost precision low.
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