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SCP-3485 Extraterrestrial/Crustacean ~ medium confidence
SCP-3485
Expected annual
$58.7M
One-time setup
$265.0M
Annual recurring
$57.3M
Personnel
118
Initial capital outlays are dominated by secure facilities, R&D/probe options, and reserves (~$264M one-time); recurring annual costs center on personnel, deception/legal operations, amnestic operations, and research (~$57.3M/yr).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $265.0M
Initial Research And Lab Setup $125.5M
[#8, #10, #20] Amnestic research & production facility buildout, initial amnestic inventory purchase, and initial low‑ambition interstellar/probe R&D capex.
Facilities $72.0M
[#15, #16, #19] Hardened headquarters, secure archival vaults, and limited civil‑defense / relocation infrastructure (EMP shielding, backup power, shelters).
Equipment $36.5M
[#1, #4, #18, #22] Dedicated observation hardware (ground telescopes/dishes), HPC purchase, satellite/commsat hardware, and specialist sensors/shielding equipment.
Red Team Reserve $25.0M
[#17] One‑time reserve set aside for catastrophic disclosure response (rapid PR buys, large covert payments, settlements).
Insurance Reserve $5.0M
[#23] One‑time legal/contingency reserve to cover initial exposure liabilities or governmental actions.
Intelligence Recruitment Training $1.0M
[#7] Initial recruitment and training costs for embedded aerospace/observatory agents (upfront onboarding, relocation, security clearancing).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $57.3M/yr
Staff Wages $15.5M/yr
[#6, #7, #13] Salaries / fully‑loaded costs for core scientific staff, intelligence/OPSEC agents, and embedded cyber/security personnel.
Supplies And Consumables $9.8M/yr
[#8, #9, #10, #25, #27] Amnestic production & QA, per‑administration clinical costs (interceptions, sedations, secure rooms), inventory rotation/testing, field security consumables, and psychological aftercare.
Cover Story And Legal $9.5M/yr
[#11, #12, #28, #29, #30] Ongoing covert PR/misinformation, legal/diplomatic retainers, planted publications/conferences, false records generation, and general plausible‑deniability slush funds.
Research And Monitoring $5.4M/yr
[#3, #4, #5, #21, #22] Continuous all‑sky survey ingestion, HPC power/maintenance and cloud burst budgets, nuclear/accelerator beamtime access, and specialist sensor maintenance/calibration.
Facilities Maintenance $4.5M/yr
[#15, #16, #18] Ongoing operation, power, and maintenance for HQ, vaults, and satellite ground infrastructure.
Cyber Operations $3.0M/yr
[#13] Offensive/defensive cyber teams, infrastructure, zero‑day/access costs, and paid data‑modification events (separate from wages included in staff_wages).
Major Facility Time Buy $2.5M/yr
[#2] Long‑term reserved observation time / covert agreements with major international observatories (time buy, covert payments, contract retainers).
Logistics And Transport $2.0M/yr
[#9, #25] Field extraction/interception travel, armored transport, safehouses logistics and witness relocation support.
Red Team Replenish $2.0M/yr
[#17] Regular replenishment / readiness funding for the rapid‑response war chest used in disclosures/campaigns.
Recruitment And Vetting $800K/yr
[#26] Ongoing background checks, polygraphs, identity creation, relocation packages, and signing bonuses for sensitive hires.
Amateur Networks $600K/yr
[#14] Stipends, equipment gifts, and cultivation of amateur astronomers and hobbyist networks for early detection/influence.
Insurance Replenish $500K/yr
[#23] Annual replenishment and legal contingency funding.
Satellite Ops $500K/yr
[#18] Bandwidth, leased capacity, and day‑to‑day ops for dedicated encrypted satellite links and relays.
Training Simulations $400K/yr
[#24] Regular tabletop exercises, simulations, and red‑team drills for containment and public‑response.
Civil Defense Maintenance $200K/yr
[#19] Upkeep of focused Foundation civil‑defense assets (shelter maintenance, limited evacuation readiness) and relocation planning.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $57.3M/yr
93.7% probability / year
Normal, uneventful year: monitoring, research, routine amnestic administrations, and ongoing deception/legal operations.
no public disclosure regular monitoring routine amnestic use
🚨 Minor Incident $61.3M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$4.0M vs baseline
Localized exposure event requiring targeted extractions, rapid PR campaign, and emergency data‑scrubbing.
amateur publication small cluster of eyewitness reports
🚨 Major Breach $87.3M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$30.0M vs baseline
Widespread public disclosure across mainstream media requiring large‑scale legal action, mass amnestic operations, and heavy PR/cover spending.
viral international disclosure government subpoenas / investigations
🚨 Catastrophic Disclosure $357.3M/yr
0.3% probability / year +$300.0M vs baseline
Full public exposure or governmental seizure forcing emergency global response, large settlements, and accelerated contingency operations.
uncontrolled, global disclosure international government action
👥 Personnel 118 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 30 [#6] Astrophysicists, xenobiologists, nuclear physicists and related senior researchers (fully‑cleared scientific staff).
Intelligence/OPSEC Agent 45 [#7] Embedded agents in aerospace agencies, observatories, and private firms responsible for influence, monitoring and cover operations.
Cyber Operations / Analyst 15 [#13] Offensive/defensive cyber staff performing monitoring, data suppression and forensic denial operations.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 10 [#25] Field security teams, armored transport crews, and safehouse guards for extractions and amnestic operations.
Engineer / Maintenance 5 [#4, #18] HPC, telescope, satellite and facility maintenance engineers.
Medical Officer 3 [#9] Clinical staff for amnestic administration, monitoring, and post‑procedure care.
Administrative Staff 9 [#12, #26] Legal liaisons, diplomatic cover coordinators, HR/vetting and finance staff supporting covert contracts and retainers.
Site Director / Executive Staff 1 [#16] Senior operational leadership and liaison for cross‑site coordination and emergency decision making.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges, but many costs (esp. optional programs like probe R&D, reserve sizing, and frequency of amnestic administrations) are highly uncertain; medium confidence reflects solid operational inputs but significant scenario volatility.
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