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SCP-3642 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-3642
Expected annual
$3.8M
One-time setup
$4.1M
Annual recurring
$3.7M
Personnel
15.5
One-time setup and suppression surge costs are estimated at roughly $3.83M, driven by containment wing buildout, public-suppression/recall actions and forensic/IT setup; ongoing yearly operations are estimated at about $3.66M/yr, led by security and medical staffing, monitoring/infiltration, and surgical/amnestic reserves.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $4.1M
Facilities $1.2M
[#1, #7, #29] Secure containment wing buildout (#1) plus build-out of OR capacity if required (#7) and industrial decontamination/quarantine of production lines (#29). Estimate reflects renovation, reinforced doors, airlocks, decon vestibules, and remediation of production sites.
Equipment $532K
[#2, #3, #4, #10, #20, #23] Dedicated HVAC installation (#2), backup generator/UPS (#3), CCTV/access control/hardened servers (#4), initial specialized PPE kit (#10), purchase/retrofit vans (#20), and secure archival hardware/servers (#23).
Initial Disinfo Campaign $500K
[#16] One-time large-scale disinformation / amnestic media campaign initial surge (scale-dependent).
Contingency Reserve $500K
[#22] One-time contingency/crisis reserve fund established for major public-exposure remediation.
Investigation Or Acquisition $300K
[#27] Investigation into origin and limited covert acquisition/infiltration budget (contingency for securing Fresh & Free personnel/assets).
Initial Settlements $300K
[#18] One-time settlements/compensation/NDAs reserve associated with initial public cases and corporate cooperation.
Recall And Destruction $275K
[#14] Purchase/recall and secure destruction of remaining product inventory (small limited-launch scenario midpoint).
Decontamination Of Manufacturing $275K
[#29] Disposal and remediation of contaminated manufacturing equipment/lines (site-dependent industrial decon).
Forensic Initial $125K
[#13] Initial forensic chemical analysis and laboratory campaign to analyze product and trace origin.
Retailer Reimbursements $105K
[#26] Public-works & retailer reimbursements and small-scale cover-story payouts to secure cooperation during recall.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $15K
[#12] Freezers and secure sample storage for pathology and evidence retention (initial equipment purchase).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $3.7M/yr
Staff Wages $1.1M/yr
[#5, #6, #8, #15] Core staffing: security guards + supervisor (#5), on-site nursing and psychiatry (#6), veterinarian/zookeeper support (#8), and embedded operatives paid as FTEs for corporate monitoring (#15).
Cover Story And Legal $712K/yr
[#16, #17, #18, #24] Ongoing social-media monitoring and rapid-response (#16), amnestic/medical suppression incident fund (#17), legal retainer and ongoing counsel (#18), and insurance/lobbying/risk-management premiums (#24).
Logistics And Transport $428K/yr
[#15, #20, #30] Investigative & supply-chain monitoring budget (#15 investigative portion), field-team vehicle operations and transport costs (#20 ops), and public-health liaison/stipends (#30).
Surgical Services Reserve $400K/yr
[#7] Recurring budget reserve for episodic reconstructive surgeries, OR time, specialists and post-op care.
Compensation And Housing $350K/yr
[#19] Relocation, housing stipends, disability support and long-term care for affected individuals (example scaled to ~10 patients).
Supplies And Consumables $290K/yr
[#9, #10, #11, #28] Ongoing medical consumables per patients (#9), PPE replacements and disposables (#10), biohazard waste handling/incineration (#11), and specialized horticultural supplies (#28).
Research And Monitoring $215K/yr
[#12, #13, #25] Ongoing pathology/testing and imaging budget (#12), follow-up forensic assays (#13), and administrative/oversight costs related to research moratorium and embargo management (#25).
Contingency Replenish $100K/yr
[#22] Annual replenishment target for contingency/crisis reserve as used or to maintain readiness.
Facilities Maintenance $68K/yr
[#2, #3, #4, #23] HVAC energy & maintenance (#2), backup generator fuel & maintenance (#3), CCTV/IT ops and physical security systems servicing (#4), plus IT archival maintenance (#23).
Training And Drills $30K/yr
[#21] Regular security, medical, and PR/amnestic training and drills.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $3.7M/yr
85.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with no major public-exposure events; ongoing monitoring, patient care, and routine containment operations.
no_breach routine_patient_admissions standard_monitoring
🚨 Minor Incident $3.8M/yr
12.0% probability / year +$150K vs baseline
Localized incident: one new SCP-3642-A discovered or a small public witness requiring field response, localized surgery/amnestic and limited recall actions.
single_new_patient local_public_witness small-scale recall/amnestic
🚨 Major Breach $6.2M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$2.5M vs baseline
Significant public-exposure or large-scale contaminated product discovery requiring mass recall, major amnestic/PR campaign, large forensic response and possible corporate disruption.
widespread product exposure media/political_attention large-scale recall/amnestic
👥 Personnel 15.5 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 6 [#5] Front-line guards for 24/7 coverage (estimate based on 6 FTEs at ~ $45k each in analyst notes).
Security Supervisor 1 [#5] Supervisor / senior security (salary & benefits included in staff_wages).
Medical / Nursing Staff 2 [#6] On-site nurses for wound care and chronic management (2 FTE as described).
Psychiatrist 0.5 [#6] 0.5 FTE psychiatric support for counseling and long-term care as in analyst notes.
Veterinarian / Zookeeper 1 [#8] 0.5–1 FTE vet/zoo support; rounded to 1 FTE coverage for on-call and scheduled care.
Embedded Operative / Field Agent 4 [#15] Corporate monitoring and supply-chain surveillance (3–5 operatives; midpoint staffing used).
Administrative Staff 1 [#5] Admin/support for scheduling, records, and logistics (included in staff_wages assumptions).
📋 Confidence Notes
Many line items are given as wide ranges and scale strongly with the assumed number of patients and whether a manufacturer acquisition is pursued; estimates use midpoints and an assumed operational cohort (~10 patients) where the analyst notes suggested mid-range recurring costs of $600k–$2M/yr.
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