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SCP-3781 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-3781
Expected annual
$5.6M
One-time setup
$35.2M
Annual recurring
$5.4M
Personnel
18
One-time capital and contingency requirements dominate (secure Tokyo facility, forensic seizure, legal buyouts and a large emergency reserve) while ongoing costs are driven by staff salaries, cyber monitoring, surveillance, legal/PR, and incident response.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $35.2M
Contingency Reserve $27.5M
[#18] Large-scale emergency reserve for catastrophic triggered events (mass casualties, infrastructure damage, major staged narratives).
Facilities $3.8M
[#1] Secure containment facility lease/retrofit in Tokyo (site, seismic/typhoon proofing, secure holding, small server room).
Legal Cover Initial $1.1M
[#9] Initial legal/PR buyouts, takedown payments, liaison costs and classified/covert payments for initial cover-up efforts.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.1M
[#5, #13, #20, #21, #23] Forensic analysis lab setup and instruments, in-house amnestic manufacturing lab setup, phrase-matching database build, dev of detection tools (initial development), and initial training/onboarding.
Equipment $650K
[#3, #6, #8, #31] Air-gapped server cluster & forensic imaging, sandbox kill-switch hardware, honeypot/decoy servers, specialized field equipment (portable Faraday, containment crates, vehicles outfitting).
Cover Identities And Relocations $600K
[#26] Procurement of cover identities, relocation packages, hush funds and identity fabrication costs.
Ip Buyout $375K
[#10] Purchase of PaintSoft assets, source code, trademarks, developer settlements and relocation/retraining assistance.
Secure Transport And Seizure $70K
[#4] Forensic seizure operations, secure shipping containers, on-site cloning before sequestration.
Disposal Decommissioning $70K
[#27] Secure destruction, incineration, certified disposal paperwork for decommissioning media and physical copies.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $5.4M/yr
Staff Wages $1.7M/yr
[#15, #16] Research staff salaries (anomalous effects, memetics, linguistics, cultural experts) and security staff payroll for 24/7 coverage.
Research And Monitoring $1.2M/yr
[#5, #7, #11, #20, #22, #23, #32, #33] Ongoing forensic analysis/patching, continuous cyber monitoring/takedown ops, surveillance/follow-up on players, dataset updates, cybersecurity audits, staff training refreshers, retro-gaming community monitoring, and ethical oversight.
Logistics And Transport $900K/yr
[#12, #17] Field operations and rapid-response raid capacity plus incident response & cleanup (travel, vehicles, temporary holding, remediation, forensics).
Cover Story And Legal $600K/yr
[#9, #19, #28] Ongoing legal/PR costs, crisis communications and insurance/liability mitigation.
Facilities Maintenance $400K/yr
[#2] Rent, utilities, HVAC (server rooms, clean rooms), routine building maintenance and waste disposal in Tokyo.
Supplies And Consumables $268K/yr
[#13, #24, #25, #30] Amnestic stockpile production/storage, long-term archival storage, medical/psychological care & reintegration, and localization/translation ongoing costs.
Local Partnerships $175K/yr
[#29] Recurring payments to local informants, ISPs and archivists for proactive takedowns and early warning.
Honeypot Monitoring $55K/yr
[#8] Monitoring and operation of decoy/honeynet infrastructure to catch rehosts and mirrors.
Automated Tools Hosting $50K/yr
[#21] Hosting, retraining and monitoring costs for phrase-detection and scraping ML systems.
Specialized Equipment Upkeep $30K/yr
[#31] Upkeep and consumables for field investigation equipment (portable shielding, containers, modified vehicles).
Sandbox And Killswitch Maintenance $20K/yr
[#6] Maintenance of sandboxed test environment and hardware/software kill-switches.
Server Maintenance $15K/yr
[#3] Maintenance, rotation and WORM backup handling for air-gapped research servers and backups.
Amnestic Cost Per Administration $0/yr
[#14] Unit cost per amnestic administration estimated $500–$3,000 per subject (per-case cost; annual total depends on number of interventions).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $5.4M/yr
79.0% probability / year
Normal year with steady-state containment: monitoring, staff salaries, routine maintenance and occasional small interventions but no major incidents.
routine_monitoring occasional_small_takedowns
🚨 Minor Incident $5.8M/yr
20.0% probability / year +$400K vs baseline
One or more limited triggered events requiring increased incident response, targeted raids, additional amnestics and localized remediation.
localized_triggered_event discovery_of_new_copy_or_mirror
🚨 Major Breach $15.4M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$10.0M vs baseline
Large-scale, high-impact triggered event (international incident or mass-casualty analog) requiring emergency mobilization, major cover-up expenditures, and use of contingency resources.
international_crisis mass_casualty_or_critical_infrastructure_damage
👥 Personnel 18 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 6 [#15] Anomalous effects, memetics, linguistics, cultural experts, translators and consultants (6 staff approximating the analyst salary total).
Security Officer / MTF Agent 12 [#16] On-site guards for 24/7 coverage (count chosen to align with security payroll estimate).
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are based on analyst ranges and SCP text; many items (legal settlements, IP buyouts, contingency reserves and incident frequencies) have wide ranges and rare catastrophic events are hard to probability-weight precisely.
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