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SCP-3874 Keter ? low confidence
SCP-3874
Expected annual
$25.2M
One-time setup
$68.2M
Annual recurring
$22.7M
Personnel
19
Estimated one-time capital + reserve costs are roughly $68.15M driven by specialized research buildouts and a large contingency reserve; ongoing annual operations are roughly $22.7M driven by cyber/signal intelligence, surveillance, informant payments and contingency per-attempt funds.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $68.2M
Contingency Catastrophic Reserve $50.0M
[#30] Liquid reserve for catastrophic remediation, mass memetic countermeasures, emergency surge research and geopolitical fallout response.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $11.0M
[#13, #15] Forensic/method-analysis lab buildout (BSL as needed) and specialty anomalous research program establishment (memetics/probability research build costs).
Equipment $4.3M
[#6, #8, #17, #24] Drone/UAV fleet purchase, deployable SIGINT intercept suites, Rapid Reaction vehicle/air assets acquisition, and secure/archive/server hardware purchases.
Facilities $2.4M
[#4, #25] Hardening/buildout of 1–3 safehouse sites (SIGINT shielding, panic rooms, etc.) and secure archival / physical-evidence vault construction.
Front Companies Setup $500K
[#21] One-time legal/financial setup costs to create shell corporations, bank infrastructure, and initial laundering/cover arrangements.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $22.7M/yr
Research And Monitoring $8.2M/yr
[#5, #8, #9, #10, #14, #16, #24, #27] Satellite imagery contracts and analytics, SIGINT telecom/sim churn and operational comms, cyber-intelligence programs (offensive/monitoring), forensic lab operating costs, memetic protection training/research, data storage/compute operations, and training/exercises.
Staff Wages $3.5M/yr
[#1, #2, #26] Program management and administration salaries, field HUMINT payroll (expatriate operators + local handlers), and specialist analyst/linguist/historian salaries.
Cover Story And Legal $3.1M/yr
[#20, #21, #22] Covert influence/media operations, ongoing front-company account/legal maintenance, and legal/diplomatic backchannel costs to manage seizures/extraditions/host-nation relationships.
Informant Recruitment Payments $2.5M/yr
[#11] Payments, relocation, staged asylum and long-term protection for defectors and recruited assets (program average).
Contingency Per Attempt Fund $2.5M/yr
[#19] Per-assassination-attempt operational expenses (surveillance, intercepts, bribery, black-ops) budgeted for expected high-risk attempts per year.
Emergency Medical Services $1.2M/yr
[#18] Emergency trauma/medevac teams, regenerative/antiregenerative protocols, pharmaceuticals and on-call medevac contracts.
Logistics And Transport $800K/yr
[#7, #23] Drone/UAV operations & maintenance (pilots, spares, hangar), and travel/transport/logistics including armored transport, covert passports, and ground movement.
Facilities Maintenance $450K/yr
[#3, #29] Rent/turnover/maintenance for safehouses and energy/utilities (generators, HVAC, fuel) for secure hubs and labs.
Defector Handling And Debriefing $250K/yr
[#12] Ongoing debrief team operations, psych evaluations, transcription/translation and secure storage workflows.
Supplies And Consumables $175K/yr
[#28] Field consumables, armaments, non-lethal gear, ammunition and routine medical/kit replacements.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $22.7M/yr
65.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with regular monitoring, routine intercepts, informant payments and no major incidents.
routine_surveillance standard_informant_activity no_major_breach
🚨 Minor Incident $26.2M/yr
30.0% probability / year +$3.5M vs baseline
One or more high-risk assassination attempts requiring on-the-ground intervention, increased legal/PR activity and asset relocation.
assassination_attempt_intervention localized_exposure defector_extraction
🚨 Major Breach $52.7M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$30.0M vs baseline
Successful or escalatory event (public anomalous display, significant geopolitical incident) triggering large-scale remediation, emergency research surge and international fallout.
successful_public_assassination_or_exposure geopolitical_crisis surge_remediation_and_research
👥 Personnel 19 total
Role Count Notes
Project Management / Administrative Staff 5 [#1] Program lead, legal vetting, contracting, audits and inter-agency liaison (4–6 FTEs).
Field HUMINT Team / Operators 6 [#2] Covert operatives: 2expatriate operators + ~4 local handlers/contacts.
Specialist Personnel (Analysts, Linguists, Historians) 8 [#26] Cuban history specialists, Spanish/Creole linguists and pattern analysts (6–12 specialists).
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates draw from wide ranges in analyst notes and many contingent, clandestine cost elements (offshore HUMINT, zero-day purchases, contingency reserve). The anomalous nature of SCP-3874 and politically sensitive operations add substantial uncertainty; figures should be treated as order-of-magnitude estimates.
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