SCP-3889 — SCP-3889 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-3889 Unknown ? low confidence

SCP-3889

Expected annual

$90.5M

One-time setup

$1.6B

Annual recurring

$66.3M

Personnel

Upfront capital and contingency reserves dominate costs (fleet procurement, strategic munitions/response reserves, and asset-replacement funds), while annual operating costs (crew, patrol ops, maintenance, surveillance, and research) run in the low tens of millions per year.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.6B

Strategic Munitions Reserve $500.0M

[#2] One-time strategic munitions reserve for large kinetic/tactical options (not routine ordnance; lower-end of recommended $500M–$2B).

Tactical Response Reserve $500.0M

[#8] One-time contingency fund for large-scale kinetic responses and remediation (planning reserve for scenarios up to multi-hundred-million).

Equipment $209.8M

[#1, #3, #4, #18, #21] Fleet procurement/refit (OPVs, patrol craft, command ship), maritime sensor buoys and shore cameras, UAV procurement/sensors, selected ROV/AUV purchase, and initial PPE/boarding gear procurement (aggregate of listed one-time equipment purchases).

Mass Casualty Reserve $200.0M

[#26] One-time reserve for mass-casualty or multi-jurisdictional scale scenarios (recommended $200M–$5B; low-end retained).

Asset Replacement Reserve $100.0M

[#22] Initial replacement reserve for lost ships/aircraft/specialized equipment (historical losses suggest multi-hundred-million risk; conservative reserve funded).

Initial Research And Lab Setup $40.0M

[#10, #11, #23] Dedicated forensic/marine necropsy lab upgrades, aquatic high-containment retrofits and initial long-term research program startup (instruments, containment upgrades, initial hiring/equipment).

Civilian Compensation Reserve $20.0M

[#15] Per-event contingency reserve for civilian casualty compensation and property remediation (set to cover moderate-sized events).

Settlement Reserve $5.0M

[#14] One-off settlement/large legal settlement reserve for visible damage or negotiated payoffs (range $0.5M–$50M; set conservatively).

R And D Capital $3.0M

[#24] One-time R&D capital for pilot containment tech and prototype trials (pilot program capital buy-in).

It Infrastructure $2.0M

[#19] One-time central fusion center hardware and hardened communications/IT infrastructure (0.5M–5M range).

Amnestic Stockpile $2.0M

[#13] One-time production/secure storage overhead for initial amnestic stockpile (0.5M–5M range).

Facilities $1.0M

[#25] One-time initial modifications to secure docks, on-site berthing and regional site facilities (estimated $0.1M–$2M).

Signal Intel Setup $500K

[#17] One-time setup of signal intelligence and social monitoring capability (intercept equipment, initial field informant setup).

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $66.3M/yr

Logistics And Transport $15.0M/yr

[#1, #4] Annual operating costs for ship crews, drydock/fuel/maintenance for the patrol fleet and aviation flight hours/maintenance for maritime patrol aircraft and helicopters.

Staff Wages $10.0M/yr

[#5, #6] Continuous manning of NTF Sigma-58 quick reaction teams and additional reserve/specialized agents (40–80 NTF personnel plus 8–12 reserves; fully loaded costs).

Insurance And Depreciation $10.0M/yr

[#22] Annual depreciation, replenishment and insurance-accounting for Foundation asset loss and replacement reserve (annual funding to rebuild reserves).

Supplies And Consumables $8.0M/yr

[#2, #21] Fuel for patrol fleet and generators, conventional ordnance resupply, and recurring expendable consumables (includes small annual PPE replacement consumables).

Facilities Maintenance $6.0M/yr

[#11, #25, #3] Annual operating and maintenance for high-containment wet labs, regional leased facilities/secure docks, and shore-site physical maintenance for sensors and docks.

Salvage And Disposal $5.0M/yr

[#9] Annual average salvage, tow, necropsy, incineration or secure disposal operations (per-event variability; modeled annual average).

Research And Monitoring $4.0M/yr

[#3, #10, #18, #23, #30] Ongoing lab analyses, field research deployments, ROV/AUV ops, long-term interdisciplinary program core costs, and routine archival/intelligence case work.

Cover Story And Legal $2.5M/yr

[#12, #14, #28] Disinformation program operations, local government liaison payments, legal fees, and oversight/legal coordination to suppress or attribute incidents.

R And D Budget $2.0M/yr

[#24] Ongoing research & development budget for containment technology and mitigation development.

Signal Intel Ops $700K/yr

[#17] Annual operations for social monitoring, signal intercept, and field informant payments.

Amnestic Replenishment $500K/yr

[#13] Annual replenishment and distribution costs for amnestic stockpile and administration readiness.

It Ops $500K/yr

[#19] Annual cloud/ops, cybersecurity, and fusion-center operating costs.

Training And Exercises $500K/yr

[#20] Regular live/virtual exercises, ROE drills, memetic safety training, and periodic large-scenario exercises (annualized).

Civilian Compensation $500K/yr

[#15] Routine smaller-incident civilian compensation and property remediation budget (routine annual incidents).

Environmental Remediation $500K/yr

[#16] Annualized environmental mitigation/remediation for localized incidents and pollution control.

Public Outreach $300K/yr

[#27] Low-key community relations, small grants, and outreach to fishermen/coastal communities to limit whistleblowing.

Investigation And Archival $150K/yr

[#30] Annual archival storage, long-tail incident investigations, witness interviews and case-file maintenance.

Ppe Replacement $100K/yr

[#21] Annual replacement/consumables for hazmat and boarding gear.

Medical And Rehab $40K/yr

[#7] Routine medical and psycho-social support for affected agents (counseling/short-term rehab modeled on ~20 incidents/year baseline).

Replacement Uniforms $15K/yr

[#29] Small annual fund to replace contaminated/unusual personal clothing and minor incident replacements.

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $66.3M/yr

70.0% probability / year

Routine year with normal operations, periodic low-to-moderate TEHOM events handled without large-scale emergency responses; no activation of major contingency reserves.

routine TEHOM events no major escalation regular patrol and research ops

🚨 Minor Incident $76.3M/yr

25.0% probability / year +$10.0M vs baseline

Single moderate TEHOM event requiring heavy conventional response, significant salvage, amnestic deployment, and elevated PR/legal activity.

moderate TEHOM with local damage conventional heavy strike large salvage and amnestic deployment

🚨 Major Breach $500.3M/yr

5.0% probability / year +$434.0M vs baseline

Large-scale TEHOM event involving heavy asset loss and/or authorization of extremely high-cost responses (large-scale conventional campaign or tactical nuclear option), triggering mass remediation, replacement, and long-term amnestic/cover operations.

catastrophic TEHOM engagement large asset loss authorization of strategic kinetic response

👥 Personnel 98 total

Role	Count	Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent	60	[#5] NTF Sigma-58 quick reaction teams and ship/boarding teams (40–80 personnel; modeled at 60).
Specialized Agent / Reserve Agents	10	[#6] Additional on-site/reserve agents for redundancy, rotation, and rapid replacement (8–12).
Research Scientist	6	[#10, #23] Core interdisciplinary research staff (geneticists, oceanographers, etc.) supporting lab analysis and correlation projects.
Engineer / Maintenance	6	[#1, #25, #11] Ship, dock, and containment facility engineers and maintenance personnel (support fleet and facility operations).
Salvage & Dive Team Specialist	6	[#9, #18] Specialized towing, dive, and necropsy crews for retrieval and disposal operations.
UAV/Flight Crew & Pilots	4	[#4] Crews and pilots for maritime patrol aircraft, helicopters, and long-endurance UAV ops.
Medical Officer	2	[#7] Medical and psycho-social support staff for injured/affected agents.
Administrative Staff	4	[#25, #14, #28] Administrative, legal liaison and compliance staff supporting operations and cover-story management.

📋 Confidence Notes

Wide ranges in analyst estimates, high tail-risk from rare TEHOM events (including nuclear-level consequences), and uncertainty in frequency/severity of major engagements reduce confidence in precise figures.

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