SCP-3930 N/A ~ medium confidence
SCP-3930
Expected annual
$4.8M
One-time setup
$5.5M
Annual recurring
$4.8M
Personnel
12
Initial capital/setup is roughly $5.46M driven by remote-site construction, heavy equipment and reserves; recurring annual costs are about $4.76M driven by staff wages, logistics (fuel/aircraft), communications, secrecy and contingency funds.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $5.5M
Equipment $2.1M
[#4, #6, #7, #9, #16, #18, #21, #23] Diesel generators and fuel storage, VSAT/secure comms hardware, hardened surveillance/sensor suite, ground fleet acquisition (snowcats/ATVs/trucks), one-time medical equipment, secure records/vault setup, one-time environmental containment equipment, and emergency response kit caches.
Facilities $1.9M
[#1, #2, #3] Land acquisition/lease initial payments and covert negotiation costs, perimeter markers/signage/fence construction, and operations compound buildout (insulation, raised foundations, storm-proofing for permafrost).
Decommissioning Reserve $1.0M
[#25] Reserved fund for future decommissioning, site remediation, removal of cover — held as an initial contingency reserve.
Legal And Shell Setup $200K
[#20] One-time legal fees to create/establish corporate shells, front companies and initial diplomatic/legal groundwork.
Personnel Vetting Initial $180K
[#13] One-time deep-background checks and psychological screening for initial roster (estimated ~12 initial hires × ~$15k per hire midpoint).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $4.8M/yr
Staff Wages $1.5M/yr
[#11] Continuous on-site staffing rotation (baseline ~12 personnel) including hazard pay, covert-contractor premiums, benefits, pension and rotation travel.
Logistics And Transport $950K/yr
[#5, #9, #10] Fuel for generators and vehicles, vehicle fuel and maintenance, pilot/operator/airlift retainer or charter costs (helicopter standby/medevac contracts), and transport logistics for resupply.
Special Secrecy Fund $400K/yr
[#26] Discretionary black-budget for leak suppression, emergency payouts, legal defense, sudden relocation of staff/documents.
Contingency Buffer $400K/yr
[#27] Operational buffer (~20% of recurring ops) for unplanned scale-up, extra staff, inspections, geopolitical events or extreme weather.
Cover Story And Legal $300K/yr
[#19, #20] Covert PR/cover story maintenance (false contracting records, staged activity), plus legal/diplomatic retainer fees.
Research And Monitoring $200K/yr
[#8, #13] Surveillance data storage/backup and ongoing psychological monitoring program for assigned personnel (ongoing vetting/mental-health support and monitoring of perceptual effects).
Local Liaison Payments $200K/yr
[#12] Ongoing payments to regional officials, law enforcement liaisons, landowner compensation, and occasional hush-money to prevent attention.
Facilities Maintenance $150K/yr
[#17] Structural repairs, weather damage, permafrost-adjustment work and lifecycle upkeep for compound/hardening.
Medical And Medevac $150K/yr
[#16] Medevac contract standby, telemedicine link costs and consumable restocking for on-site medic.
Supplies And Consumables $120K/yr
[#15] Food, potable water delivery/filtration, replacement clothing, small heating fuel, generator oil, batteries and medical supplies.
Communications Bandwidth $120K/yr
[#6, #24] Satellite bandwidth leases, encrypted transit/VPN, and comms service maintenance for telemetry, video and classified voice/data.
Training And Drills $100K/yr
[#14] Periodic cold-weather training, SOP refreshers, emergency evacuation drills, and rotation logistics costs.
Secure Records And It $60K/yr
[#18] Ongoing encrypted archiving, redaction work, access audits and IT security maintenance.
Audit And Oversight $50K/yr
[#22] Periodic internal inspections, oversight visits, and equipment/system tests.
Environmental Mitigation $40K/yr
[#21] Fuel/oil spill response contracts, waste disposal and compliance measures.
Emergency Cache Maintenance $20K/yr
[#23] Maintenance and replenishment of emergency response caches and portable shelters.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $4.8M/yr
94.5% probability / year
Normal, uneventful year with steady operations, routine maintenance and no major incidents.
steady staffing rotations planned maintenance regular resupply
🚨 Minor Incident $5.1M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$300K vs baseline
Localized equipment failure, small-scale structural damage or an attempted civilian incursion requiring emergency response and incremental legal/PR costs.
sensor/hardening failure small breach attempt localized environmental spill
🚨 Major Breach $7.3M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$2.5M vs baseline
Significant containment/operational failure, high-profile exposure, or large-scale equipment loss requiring large-scale response, diplomatic/legal payouts and rapid scale-up.
major equipment/system failure widely observed incident / political exposure multiple personnel casualty or mass evacuation
👥 Personnel 12 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 4 Perimeter guards and rapid-response security presence; maps to staffing cost estimate [#11].
Technician (sensor/communications/engineer) 3 Sensor maintenance, comms operator, power systems and facility tech roles; maps to [#7, #6, #4, #11].
Logistics / Driver / Vehicle Operator 2 Vehicle operators, drivers, snowcat/snowmobile operators; maps to [#9, #10].
Medical Officer 1 On-site medic/first responder; maps to [#16].
Site Commander / Administrative Staff 1 Site lead, command and liaison functions; maps to [#11, #20].
Support Staff (cook / maintenance / supply) 1 General support, supply handling and housekeeping; maps to [#15, #17].
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges, enabling midrange estimates, but anomalous nature, political variables in Russia, and uncertainty in incident frequency reduce precision.
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