SCP-3983 Unknown ? low confidence
SCP-3983
Expected annual
$45.5M
One-time setup
$306.4M
Annual recurring
$43.9M
Personnel
50
Initial capital outlays are large (~$306.4M) driven by purchase/retrofit of two deep‑rated surface vessels, deep AUV/ANOD fleets, tethered ROV/winch systems and related deep‑water hardware; recurring annual operations (crew, vessel ops, maintenance, specialists, deployments, and contingency replenishment) are estimated at ~$43.9M/yr.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $306.4M
Equipment $274.3M
[#1, #3, #5, #6, #7, #9, #17, #18, #26] Purchase/retrofit of two DP vessels, fleet of ANODs, tethered ROV/winch systems, (optionally) a manned sub purchase, seafloor sensors, camera spares, emergency gear, data hardware, and one-time IT/OPSEC systems.
Contingency Reserve $20.0M
[#20] Capital reserve for rapid replacement of lost deep assets or emergency salvage (one-time fund allocation).
Facilities $8.5M
[#13, #21, #27] Necropsy retrofit, limited conservation/intervention planning, and initial spares/warehouse staging.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.6M
[#14, #15, #16, #23] Initial sample-analysis campaigns and lab setup, linguistics/epigraphy consults, amnestic kit procurement, and training/course establishment.
Diplomatic Setup $1.0M
[#12] One-time diplomatic/legal setup and discrete agreement costs for Tonga/EEZ/covert arrangements.
Intelligence Tools $500K
[#10] One-time development/purchase of webcrawler/surveillance tools and initial satellite/AIS integration licensing.
Liaison Setup $300K
[#11] One-time costs to establish covert liaison/off‑board cover relationships with NOAA/other orgs.
Environmental Studies $250K
[#24] Initial environmental impact studies and baseline assessments.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $43.9M/yr
Logistics And Transport $12.0M/yr
[#2] Surface vessel operation (crewing, fuel, consumables, port calls) for two ships; station‑keeping and transit costs.
Staff Wages $7.0M/yr
[#19] Fully burdened salaries for operators, vessel crew, scientists, medics, engineers and admin (estimated 30–80 staff; modeled at ~50 FTEs).
Manned Submersible Lease $6.0M/yr
[#6] Occasional lease/support programs (e.g., 30‑day program/year) for manned trench dives and associated support.
Contingency Replenish $4.0M/yr
[#20] Annual replenish/reserve allocation to replace lost deep assets (ANODs/ROVs) based on attrition.
Deployment Campaigns $2.0M/yr
[#8] Annualized cost for specialized deployment campaigns (cable‑laying, heavy lift, adverse weather operations).
Anod Maintenance $1.5M/yr
[#4] Fleet maintenance, recalibration, battery replacement, software updates and rebuilds/replacements for deep AUVs/ANODs.
Long Term Research $1.5M/yr
[#25] Ongoing funded research programs, cross‑SCP liaison missions and experiments related to SCP‑3983.
Misc Logistics $1.5M/yr
[#27] Annual air freight, helicopter support, spare parts staging and regional resupply logistics.
Rov Maintenance $1.0M/yr
[#5] Maintenance, testing and upkeep for tethered deep‑ROV systems and winch packages.
Diplomatic Retainer $1.0M/yr
[#12] Recurring diplomatic/legal retainers, quiet payments and permit/sovereign cost smoothing.
Necropsy Operations $800K/yr
[#13] Staffing, consumables and cold storage for secure necropsy suite operations.
Sensor Maintenance $600K/yr
[#7] Maintenance, periodic retrieval and data retrieval costs for seafloor sensor arrays and moorings.
Intelligence Subscriptions $600K/yr
[#10] Ongoing data subscriptions, satellite/AIS fees and analyst access for vessel tracking and imagery.
Data Infra Recurring $600K/yr
[#18] Bandwidth, secure storage, compute/AI processing and cybersecurity for continuous high‑bandwidth data ingest.
Liaison Operations $500K/yr
[#11] Ongoing covert liaison payments, joint ops support and personnel exchanges with civilian organizations.
Sample Analysis Recurring $500K/yr
[#14] Ongoing archaeologic, material and biological analyses, dating, conservation and specialist fees.
Camera Consumables $400K/yr
[#9] Optical/hydrophone spare parts, cleaning systems, and consumables for high‑pressure camera packages.
Emergency Readiness $400K/yr
[#17] At‑sea emergency response readiness, drills, hazmat/medevac preparedness and training.
Conservation Monitoring $400K/yr
[#21] Ongoing monitoring and preservation programs for in‑situ chamber conservation if interventions occur.
It Ops Recurring $400K/yr
[#26] Recurring satellite/AIS/secure comms fees, maintenance and anti‑forensic systems for remote links.
Amnestic Recurring $300K/yr
[#16] Production, storage, deployment and personnel costs for amnestic administration and follow‑ups.
Cover And Pr $300K/yr
[#22] Ongoing covert cover stories, PR, rapid response and media management to obfuscate sightings/leaks.
Training Recurring $300K/yr
[#23] Refresher training for ROV ops, deep‑sea mission planning and amnestic administration.
Environmental Monitoring $150K/yr
[#24] Annual monitoring/mitigation to avoid ecological disruption and to mask operational signature.
Linguistics Contracts Recurring $125K/yr
[#15] Periodic engagement of rongorongo/Akkadian specialists and epigraphers.
Facilities Maintenance $0/yr
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Supplies And Consumables $0/yr
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Research And Monitoring $0/yr
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Cover Story And Legal $0/yr
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Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $43.9M/yr
88.0% probability / year
Normal year with continuous presence, routine maintenance, deployments and scheduled research with no major incidents.
scheduled deployments routine maintenance no major equipment loss
🚨 Minor Incident $50.4M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$6.5M vs baseline
Localized equipment loss or damage (e.g., lost ANOD or tethered ROV, limited legal/PR event) requiring rapid replacement/repair and surge response.
ANOD/ROV catastrophic loss localized explosion/damage (SCP-3983-04 event) small media leak
🚨 Major Breach $93.9M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline
Significant public exposure, large salvage/rescue operation, major asset loss and diplomatic/legal crisis requiring large replacements and amnestic campaigns.
public footage/leak requiring mass amnestics manned dive accident / major vessel loss international diplomatic incident
👥 Personnel 50 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 8 [#19] Onboard/offboard security and rapid response teams.
Naval crew / vessel crew 13 [#2, #19] Crew to operate two DP vessels, include bridge, engineering and deckhands (rotating shifts).
ROV/ANOD Operator / Technician 8 [#3, #4, #19] Pilots and technicians for autonomous and tethered systems.
Engineer / Maintenance 6 [#5, #17, #18, #19] Mechanical/electrical engineers for vessels, winches, winch packages and data hardware.
Research Scientist 6 [#14, #25, #19] Oceanographers, archaeologists, material scientists for analysis and experiments.
Medical Officer 2 [#13, #16, #19] Medical staff for necropsy, amnestic administration and medevac coordination.
Administrative Staff 3 [#10, #11, #19] Program admin, logistics coordination, and liaison support.
Hazmat / Emergency Response Team 2 [#17, #19] Onboard hazmat/fire/evac specialists.
Linguist / Epigrapher 1 [#15, #14] Resident/lead linguist to coordinate translations and specialist contracting.
Site Director / Executive Staff 1 [#19] Program manager overseeing operations, budgets and external coordination.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are low confidence due to wide price ranges for deep‑ocean hardware, uncertain mission tempo, high variability in loss/attrition rates at trench depths, and policy/diplomatic unpredictability.
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