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SCP-4105 Keter ? low confidence
SCP-4105
Expected annual
$25.8M
One-time setup
$762.9M
Annual recurring
$20.5M
Personnel
62
One-time containment/mitigation options run into the hundreds of millions to billions of dollars (largest drivers: permanent buyouts, catastrophic-response reserves, and large contingency/legal reserves). Annual operating posture for medium-scale containment and research is estimated in the low tens of millions, driven by evacuation logistics, covert placement/staffing, helicopter/aerial ops, and sustained research.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $762.9M
Facilities $421.2M
[#15, #16, #20] Permanent exclusion buyouts/land acquisition and infrastructure relocation, river-engineering works, and local command center build-out.
Catastrophic Response Reserve $275.0M
[#24] Centralized catastrophic-response reserve for large containment failures, mass evacuations, or media buyouts.
Legal Settlements Reserve $55.0M
[#19] One-time reserve allocation for potential large legal settlements and liabilities.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $6.2M
[#8, #25] Amnestic production R&D/setup and neutralization/field-trial experimental setup (lab and field instrumentation).
Tactical Formation And Vehicles $950K
[#4] Team formation/training and purchase of boats/vehicles (midpoint estimate).
Vehicle Fleet Purchase $800K
[#27] Purchase of buses, armored vans, and field SUVs for medium fleet.
Boats Diving Package $550K
[#9] RIBs, ROV, sonar, diving gear (medium package).
Sensors Early Warning $500K
[#1] Hardware and installation for river gauges, flow sensors, weather stations and telemetry (medium scenario).
Covert Operatives Setup $500K
[#14] One-time covert program setup costs for placement/cover establishment.
Detention Facility Setup $500K
[#7] Dedicated temporary facility build-out for holding/detention prior to amnestics.
Public Relations Initial $500K
[#17] Initial PR/covercraft and legal framing setup for plausible non-anomalous narrative.
Cctv Surveillance Install $400K
[#2] Fixed/PTZ/IR camera network installation and local backhaul for medium-length corridor.
Cultural Liaison Setup $200K
[#26] One-time setup for recruitment/cultural-liaison team establishment.
Emergency Power Install $150K
[#21] Generators and installation for command center and critical infrastructure.
Secure Server And Encryption $125K
[#22] Initial secure server, encryption, and forensic storage hardware.
Evacuation Contracting $100K
[#6] One-time contracting/admin fees for pre-arranged bus/hotel/shelter contracts.
Protective Equipment Initial $100K
[#10] Initial water-impermeable suits, respirators, decon tents for response teams.
Perimeter Initial Gear $75K
[#3] Initial armament, radios, uniforms for perimeter enforcement staff.
Equipment $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $20.5M/yr
Staff Wages $5.2M/yr
[#3, #7, #14, #26] Baseline security salaries (12 guards + 6 supervisors), medical staff support for detention, covert-placement salaries, and cultural liaison salaries (medium staffing).
Logistics And Transport $4.9M/yr
[#6, #5, #27, #9] Evacuation operations (buses/shelters), helicopter operations/lease and fuel, vehicle fleet fuel/maintenance, and boat/diving recurring maintenance.
Research And Monitoring $2.1M/yr
[#12, #1, #2] Core scientific program (hydrology/ethnography/modeling) plus routine sensor/CCTV maintenance and monitoring operations.
Neutralization Research $2.0M/yr
[#25] Ongoing exploratory neutralization/field-trial research program (small-to-mid scale recurring effort).
Reconciliation Programs $2.0M/yr
[#13] Annual grants/program funding for reconciliation and policy advocacy as a preventative measure.
Medical Mortuary $1.1M/yr
[#11] Annual contingency for emergency treatment, psychological care, autopsies, and mortuary handling.
Cover Story And Legal $900K/yr
[#17, #18, #28] Ongoing PR/legal fees, ethics committee/oversight engagements, and insurance administrative costs.
Facilities Maintenance $740K/yr
[#16, #20, #21, #22] Engineering inspection/maintenance, command center operations/utilities, generator fuel/testing, and data center hosting costs.
Detainee Event Costs $600K/yr
[#7] Per-event detainee holding, medical screening, and Class A amnestic doses (assumes ~200 detainees/event at midpoint cost).
Tactical Readiness $300K/yr
[#4] Annual training, readiness, ammunition, and maintenance for tactical rapid-response teams.
Detention Facility Ops $250K/yr
[#7] Recurring operations for temporary holding facility (security, utilities, medical screening).
Supplies And Consumables $235K/yr
[#3, #10, #8] Ongoing gear replacement, protective-equipment consumables, and amnestic stockpile replenishment (annual).
Training Exercises $175K/yr
[#23] Annual drills, exercises, and community preparedness runs.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $20.5M/yr
82.0% probability / year
Normal annual operations: monitoring, planned evacuations, routine maintenance, research, and steady covert placement operations with no major containment failures.
routine_early_warnings annual_evacuations no_major_breach
🚨 Minor Incident $25.5M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Localized containment incident requiring expanded emergency response, increased legal/PR expenditure, and limited casualties or detentions.
localized_breach unexpected_civilian_noncompliance minor_casualties
🚨 Major Breach $170.5M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$150.0M vs baseline
Major containment failure or highly publicized mass-casualty event triggering large litigation, mass evacuation, and replenishment of contingency reserves.
mass_casualties widespread_media_exposure multi-jurisdiction_litigation
👥 Personnel 62 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 18 [#3] Baseline 12 full-time guards plus 6 supervisors to maintain perimeter and shifts (salaries included in staff_wages).
Tactical rapid-response team 12 [#4] Shore/boat-capable tactical operators maintained for surge response and capture operations (salaries and training costs included in staff_wages and tactical_readiness).
Research Scientist 8 [#12] PI, hydrologists, chemists, and field technicians supporting ongoing research programs (salaries and program costs in research_and_monitoring).
Medical Officer 4 [#7, #11] Medical staff for detainee screening, emergency response, and mortuary coordination (operational costs in medical_mortuary and detention_facility_ops).
Engineer / Maintenance 3 [#16, #20] Engineers/technicians for river-engineering inspections, generator and facility maintenance (costs in facilities_maintenance).
Administrative Staff 4 [#20, #17] Site administration, logistics planning, and PR/legal coordination (costs in cover_story_and_legal and logistics).
Covert Agent / Planted Official 10 [#14] Network of placed agents to influence policy and reconciliation efforts (salaries included in staff_wages; setup in covert_operatives_setup).
Cultural Liaison / Indigenous Advisory 3 [#13, #26] Cultural liaisons and community engagement staff to support reconciliation programs and reduce event frequency (recurring reconciliation_programs and liaison salaries included).
📋 Confidence Notes
Many line items use broad ranges and scenario-dependent choices (e.g., buyouts vs annual coercive evacuations, lease vs purchase of aircraft). Event frequency and scale are not well-defined in the source, and some major costs (litigation, political response) are highly stochastic; estimates are order-of-magnitude and should be treated as low-confidence planning figures.
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