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SCP-4193 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-4193
Expected annual
$1.4M
One-time setup
$2.0M
Annual recurring
$1.3M
Personnel
13
One-time capital purchases and potential humanoid-cell construction drive upfront costs (~$2.0M). Recurring annual costs are dominated by security and medical staffing, legal/cover-up budgets, and insurance, totaling roughly $1.26M/yr in a steady state.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.0M
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.2M
[#9, #11, #25] Capital analytical and imaging instrumentation if purchased (mass spec/NMR/HPLC $300k–$1.5M; ophthalmic/micro-imaging $80k–$350k) plus initial research program seed (small program/outsourcing capital). Estimate uses midpoints where ranges given.
Facilities $628K
[#1, #7] Secure containment vault purchase/installation ($15k–$40k) and optional long-term humanoid containment cell construction ($200k–$1M). Estimate uses midpoints of provided ranges.
Equipment $130K
[#3, #12, #13, #19, #24] Dedicated inventory/CCTV/install ($5k–$12k), assistive-vision devices initial provisioning ($2k–$25k per subject), initial medical supply stockpile ($3k–$10k), initial staff training program ($8k–$20k), and replacement/mitigation contingency fund ($25k–$150k). Aggregated as one-time equipment/initial-provisioning budget.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.3M/yr
Staff Wages $680K/yr
[#4, #5, #9] Dedicated security staffing (6 FTE guards + 1 supervisor ~ $350k–$420k), medical staffing (1–2 nurses + physician on-call retainer), and research technician/scientist salaries (when instruments in-house). Aggregate uses mid-range salary estimates from notes.
Cover Story And Legal $235K/yr
[#16, #17, #18] Controlled-substance compliance and legal counsel ($10k–$50k/yr), cover-up/misinformation contingency ($50k–$300k/yr), and ethical oversight/legal liability planning ($10k–$50k/yr). Aggregated as ongoing legal/cover budget.
Insurance And Reserve $150K/yr
[#22] Liability insurance, indemnity, and contingency reserve (~$50k–$250k/yr) to cover unexpected exposures or settlements.
Research And Monitoring $91K/yr
[#9, #10, #21, #25] Outsourced analytical packages ($2k–$20k/sample), routine toxicology/blood monitoring ($150–$500 per panel; $1k–$5k per dosing cycle), secure data management and archives ($2k–$10k/yr), and modest recurring research program costs if active. Aggregate uses conservative mid-range recurring research spend.
Misc Site Overhead $48K/yr
[#23] Proportional Site-23 overhead allocation (utilities, janitorial, administrative support) estimated from provided range ($20k–$75k/yr).
Psychiatric And Rehabilitation $20K/yr
[#8] Ongoing outpatient psychiatric follow-up and rehabilitation/support for affected subjects (outpatient $3k–$15k/yr; residential higher). Baseline assumes limited caseload; larger programs would scale this line.
Logistics And Transport $15K/yr
[#20] Secure transfer / armored courier / security escort for moving caplets between vault and lab: budgeted for a few moves/year (~$500–$5,000 per transfer).
Supplies And Consumables $6K/yr
[#11, #13, #15] Annual replenishment of medical supplies ($1k–$5k/yr), routine ophthalmic clinical exam costs (~$300–$1,500 per evaluation), and hazardous/pharmaceutical waste disposal ($500–$3,000/yr).
Facilities Maintenance $5K/yr
[#2] Vault environmental control, HVAC, UPS power maintenance and energy (~$1,200–$4,800/yr) plus monitoring/maintenance. Includes mid-range monitoring/cloud charges.
Staff Training Refreshers $5K/yr
[#19] Annual refresher training and SOP updates ($2k–$8k/yr).
Inventory And Cctv Data $2K/yr
[#3] Recurring data/storage costs for inventory, CCTV retention and audit logs (~$100–$300/mo).
Long Term Cell Ops $0/yr
[#7] Recurring staffing/maintenance for a long-term humanoid containment cell is estimated $80k–$200k/yr if active; set to $0 baseline (cell not assumed operational by default).
Emergency Icu Per Incident $0/yr
[#6] Per-incident acute MDMA toxicity treatment cost estimated $20k–$150k. Set to $0 in baseline recurring budget; applied to adverse-event scenarios as needed.
Fatality Response Per Incident $0/yr
[#14] Per-fatality autopsy/forensics/disposal and immediate extra cover-up expense estimated in ranges (autopsy/handling/forensics ~$8k–$35k plus cover-up up to $200k). Set to $0 baseline and applied in fatality scenarios.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.3M/yr
73.0% probability / year
Normal uneventful year with secure storage, monitoring, routine maintenance, staffing, and modest research/administrative overhead; no serious overdoses, fatalities, or large-scale research expansion.
no serious incidents no repeated-dosing research program expansion normal staffing/maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $1.4M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$100K vs baseline
Single serious non-fatal MDMA toxicity incident requiring ICU care, emergency interventions, and short-term follow-up plus modest cover/administrative response.
severe MDMA toxicity case emergency ICU admission short-term forensic/administrative response
🚨 Major Fatality $1.5M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$230K vs baseline
A test or accidental ingestion results in subject fatality; triggers autopsy, enhanced forensic investigation, and substantial cover-up/settlement/legal expense.
fatal overdose forensic/autopsy procedures large cover-up / settlement
🚨 Active Research Scaleup $2.0M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$730K vs baseline
Programmatic decision to pursue repeated-dosing research with humane long-term containment: increases staff, recurring research budgets, and operations for long-term humanoid cell.
approval for repeated-dosing trials construction/activation of humanoid cell expanded research staffing and monitoring
👥 Personnel 13 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 6 [#4] Six FTE guards to maintain 24/7 coverage as noted.
Security Supervisor 1 [#4] One supervisor to oversee guard team and access control.
Research Scientist 1 [#9, #25] Staff to oversee analytical work and study design (salary included in research/staff wages).
Lab Technician 1 [#9, #11] Technician to run assays/imaging or coordinate outsourced analyses.
Medical Officer / Nurse 2 [#5] One-to-two dedicated nurses/medics available for tests and emergencies (notes assume two to ensure coverage).
Site Director / Administrative Staff 1 [#23] Small administrative support for recordkeeping, scheduling, and cover-story management.
Engineer / Maintenance 1 [#2, #11] Facilities/maintenance support for HVAC/UPS and imaging equipment upkeep.
📋 Confidence Notes
Notes provide specific line-item ranges for most costs, but many items are conditional (e.g., building a humanoid cell, buying capital instruments versus outsourcing, incident frequency). Midpoint assumptions and baseline choices introduce uncertainty; hence medium confidence.
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