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SCP-4342 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-4342
Expected annual
$302K
One-time setup
$39K
Annual recurring
$166K
Personnel
1.3
Initial one-time setup is modest (~$38.8k) driven by measurement instruments and initial analyses; recurring costs average ~$166k/yr driven primarily by personnel (security and research) and site overhead. Rare adverse incidents can produce very large, potentially catastrophic, episodic expenses.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $39K
Initial Research And Lab Setup $30K
[#10, #11, #17] Measurement instrumentation (portable spectrometer/colorimeter), outsourced analytical chemistry/materials analyses, and one-time SOP creation/documentation costs.
Equipment $7K
[#2, #3, #4, #9] Tamper/access sensors and logging one-time hardware, dedicated HD infrared camera hardware, micro-environment archival box/dehumidifier hardware, and basic experimental stimulus rigs/fixtures.
Facilities $2K
[#1] Secure storage locker installation and mounting in Site-44 secure storage room; tamper-resistant and archival lining.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $166K/yr
Staff Wages $92K/yr
[#6, #7, #8] Baseline personnel costs: incremental security coverage using site resources (midpoint), one part-time researcher (0.5 FTE pro‑rated), and technician support (0.5 FTE pro‑rated).
Research And Monitoring $35K/yr
[#13, #17, #19, #20] Secure data storage/backups and IT support, annual refresher training, long-term periodic conservation amortized annually, and discretionary research program budget.
Facilities Maintenance $26K/yr
[#3, #4, #5, #16] Camera storage/maintenance, micro-climate energy/consumables, continuous power draw for monitoring/micro-environment, and pro-rated Site-44 facilities allocation/overhead.
Cover Story And Legal $6K/yr
[#18] Annual cover-story maintenance, records redaction and legal/PR support (midpoint estimate).
Supplies And Consumables $3K/yr
[#2, #12] Replaceable write-once media and sensor maintenance plus archival gloves, silica packets, batteries, swabs and other consumables for testing/conservation.
Incident Response Reserve $2K/yr
[#15] Amortized contingency reserve for incident response/forensics/recontainment (per-incident reserve midpoint amortized assuming ~0.2 incidents/yr).
Logistics And Transport $2K/yr
[#14] Secure transport/escort costs for occasional moves (assumes ~1 move/year at midpoint).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $166K/yr
91.5% probability / year
Normal, uneventful year with routine monitoring, occasional tests, and baseline staffing using existing site security.
routine testing no major incidents incremental site security
🚨 Dedicated Resourcing $344K/yr
5.0% probability / year +$178K vs baseline
Site assigns a dedicated 24/7 guard rotation and increases research intensity (higher staffing and program budget).
policy decision to dedicate guards large-scale active research campaign
🚨 Minor Incident $241K/yr
3.0% probability / year +$75K vs baseline
A testing incident triggers localized loss or damage requiring emergency response, forensics, temporary recontainment and PR/legal work.
adverse testing outcome localized personnel or asset loss emergency recontainment
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $25.2M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$25.0M vs baseline
Severe containment failure/‘lost’ event (site or regional losses) that requires large-scale mitigation, disinformation, and continuity operations (potential SK-class costs).
site-scale loss widespread exposure major disinformation & remediation
👥 Personnel 1.3 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 0.3 [#6] Baseline incremental security equivalent (partial FTE) using existing site personnel; dedicated-guard staffing modeled in scenarios separately.
Research Scientist 0.5 [#7] One part-time researcher (0.5 FTE) to design and run tests; cost included in staff_wages.
Technician / Lab Assistant 0.5 [#8] Lab technician support (approx. 0.5 FTE pro-rated) for setup, samples, and experiment execution.
📋 Confidence Notes
Notes provide specific line items and ranges for most costs (facility, equipment, personnel), so midpoint-based estimates are reasonably grounded; however incident frequencies and severity (especially catastrophic outcomes) are highly uncertain, so overall confidence is medium.
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