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SCP-4389 Euclid ~ medium confidence
SCP-4389
Expected annual
$8.2M
One-time setup
$8.0M
Annual recurring
$8.0M
Personnel
21
Initial containment and capability buildout is capital-intensive (~$8.0M one-time) driven by a secure insectarium, lab equipment, and covert manufacturing/brand acquisition. Annual recurring costs (~$8.0M/year baseline) are dominated by salaries, covert product distribution, legal/cover operations, and contingency/reserve funds.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $8.0M
Facilities $4.0M
[#1] Dedicated secure insectarium/quarantine clinic buildout with BSL-2+ entomology specialization, autoclaves, incinerator access, negative/positive pressure rooms.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.9M
[#4, #13] Initial R&D program setup and laboratory instrumentation (chemistry/toxicology, microscopes, PCR, growth chambers, rearing cages).
Brand Acquisition And Manufacturing Line $1.0M
[#5] Buying/setting up covert cosmetics brand and contract manufacturing lines to integrate 4389-X or initial product-line changes.
Legal Cover Setup $300K
[#6] One-time setup of shell companies, forged approvals, regulatory capture groundwork and initial legal/subterfuge costs.
Hvac And Mobile Units $200K
[#2] Industrial HEPA upgrades, UV-C sterilization installation for facility plus several mobile HEPA/UV units and commissioning.
Evidence Containers And Vehicles $100K
[#10] Biosecure specimen containers, cryo/ambient storage boxes and one-time purchase/modification of secure courier vehicles.
Public Health Campaign Initial $100K
[#9] Initial PR/media project to establish cover narrative, fake research, influencer engagement and campaign materials.
Specialized Extraction Equipment $100K
[#19] Fine micromanipulators, ENT/neurosurgical-grade instruments and imaging setup for severe extraction cases.
Supplier Buyout Capital $100K
[#21] Seed capital for initial buyouts of illicit supplier inventories or one-off purchases to secure contaminated stock.
Vivarium Initial $75K
[#14] Initial secure climate-controlled enclosures and setup costs for maintaining moth/cocoon colonies under lockdown.
Training Program Setup $75K
[#17] One-time setup for cover training, fake credentials/education creation and program infrastructure.
Surveillance Equipment Initial $50K
[#18] Purchase/installation of initial air-sampler units, CCTV and environmental sensors for monitored sites.
Decontamination Initial Stock $20K
[#12] Initial stock of PPE, gowns, respirators, disinfectants and autoclave accessories.
Longterm Storage Initial $20K
[#26] Initial cataloging, secure shelving/containment and vaulting setup for anomalous wigs/objects.
Equipment $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $8.0M/yr
Staff Wages $2.4M/yr
[#7, #8, #24] Salaries for undercover monitoring agents, clinicians for extractions, research staff, lab technicians, security and administrative staff.
Manufacturing Distribution $1.2M/yr
[#5] Recurring costs to manufacture, quality control, altered production runs and covert distribution of 4389-X-treated products per city/region.
Personnel Overhead $708K/yr
[#24] Management, HR, IT, secure communications and non-wage overhead calculated as a program multiplier on salaries.
Emergency Outbreak Fund $500K/yr
[#20] Maintained contingency allocation for rapid containment mobilization, mass clinics, and emergency disposals.
Research And Monitoring $480K/yr
[#4, #30, #13] Ongoing R&D follow-up, toxicology/dermatological monitoring, lifecycle studies and internal program research.
Cover Story And Legal $460K/yr
[#6, #9] Ongoing legal counsel, crisis management, PR monitoring and maintenance of cover narratives and fake publications.
Supplies And Consumables $444K/yr
[#3, #8, #12] HEPA/UV filter replacement, disposables for extractions (forceps, suture kits, topical meds), PPE restocking and sterilization consumables.
Insurance Liability $200K/yr
[#22] Internal liability accounting, indemnification and special legal insurance expenses.
Remediation Fund $200K/yr
[#16] Annual contingency for civilian remediation, settlements, clinical follow-ups and salon compensations.
Breach Exercises $200K/yr
[#25] Tabletop exercises, scenario modeling and stockpiling countermeasures for surge staffing.
Containment Program Audit $150K/yr
[#30] External consultants, audits, and ongoing program-compliance activities.
Logistics And Transport $144K/yr
[#10, #21] Secure courier operations, chain-of-custody transport monthly operations and logistics for evidence movement.
Surveillance And Data Operations $120K/yr
[#18] Analysts, AI/video storage and processing costs for CCTV and environmental sensor networks.
Market Surveillance $120K/yr
[#15] Staff and purchases for e-commerce monitoring, undercover buys and customs/cooperation per target region.
Facilities Maintenance $100K/yr
[#1, #2] Ongoing building upkeep, HVAC servicing (excluding filter consumables), utilities and facility systems maintenance.
Supplier Buyout Reserve $100K/yr
[#21] Annual reserve for opportunistic buyouts or rapid purchase of suspect inventories.
International Coordination $100K/yr
[#27] Liaison costs, covert diplomatic expenses and customs cooperation for transnational supply monitoring.
Data Security And Suppression $100K/yr
[#29] Online takedown, evidence suppression, forensic ops and maintenance of secure case databases.
Epidemiological Surveillance $80K/yr
[#23] Funded reporting network with clinics, morgues and cosmetology schools and basic data analysis.
Disposal And Incineration $60K/yr
[#11] Annual contracted biohazard disposal and periodic bulk cleanup event budgets.
Training Recurrence $50K/yr
[#17] Ongoing refresher training, credential maintenance and cover upkeep costs per agent.
Specialized Surgical Costs $50K/yr
[#19] Per-case advanced surgical/imaging expenses and instrument maintenance for invasive extractions.
Psychological Counseling $50K/yr
[#28] Counseling budgets for exposed civilians and agent debriefing programs.
Longterm Vivarium Maintenance $40K/yr
[#14] Ongoing feeding substrates, climate control and staff costs to sustain captive colonies.
Longterm Storage Recurring $5K/yr
[#26] Annual costs for cataloging, storage space and periodic destructive testing or preservation.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $8.0M/yr
88.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine surveillance, ongoing distribution of 4389-X and no major outbreaks or breaches.
routine surveillance ongoing treatment/manufacture
🚨 Minor Incident $8.5M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Localized outbreak or supplier discovery requiring targeted recalls, surge clinics, limited buyouts and PR/legal response.
localized outbreak salon cluster small-scale supplier compromise
🚨 Major Breach $15.5M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$7.5M vs baseline
Widespread contamination or public exposure requiring national-scale recalls, mass buybacks, emergency clinics and significant remediation.
nationwide supply contamination widespread embedding events large supplier compromise
👥 Personnel 21 total
Role Count Notes
Undercover Agent / MTF Agent 10 Agents placed in salons/retail to detect infestations and push treated products; salaries included in staff_wages.
Medical Officer / Clinician 3 Clinicians trained for extractions and wound care; salaries included in staff_wages.
Research Scientist 2 Entomologists/chemists for formulation and lifecycle research; salaries included in staff_wages.
Research Technician / Lab Technician 3 Lab technicians and insectary staff included in staff_wages.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 2 Armed security for high-risk operations and storage; salaries included in staff_wages.
Administrative Staff / Program Manager 1 Program management and administrative support; salary included in staff_wages.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed ranges for most line items but many figures depend on program scale, covert manufacturing choices, and unpredictable outbreak frequency; mid-range estimates used where ranges were broad.
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