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SCP-4486 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-4486
Expected annual
$16.9M
One-time setup
$83.5M
Annual recurring
$16.1M
Personnel
35
One-time capital requirements are approximately $83.5M, driven by an emergency reserve, facility upgrades, property acquisitions, and R&D/setup costs; annual operating costs are roughly $16.1M, driven primarily by MTF staffing, ongoing R&D/monitoring, legal/PR/media mitigation, and data/subscription monitoring.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $83.5M
Emergency Reserve $55.0M
[#14] Emergency incident fund / contingency reserve (range $10M–$100M; midpoint used)
Facilities $15.0M
[#8] Permanent containment facility upgrades / safeholding site (midpoint of $5M–$25M)
Property Acquisitions $6.0M
[#13] Purchase/lease of franchised properties (budget for a handful of sites $2M–$10M; midpoint used)
Mobile Containment R And D $5.0M
[#7] Mobile containment and shielding R&D/setup (estimate $2M–$8M; midpoint used)
Amnestic Setup $650K
[#10] Amnestic production and mass-administration setup ($300k–$1M; midpoint used)
Initial Research And Lab Setup $600K
[#17] IT/HPC and initial hardware procurement for modeling and secure lab compute (one-time hardware $200k–$1M; midpoint used)
Kappa3 Training $425K
[#3] One-time recruitment/specialized memetics and resilience training for Kappa-3 (estimate $250k–$600k)
Vehicles Fleet $300K
[#6] Rapid-response initial fleet purchase ($300k initial fleet)
Covert Surveillance $275K
[#4] Covert surveillance kit procurement (cameras, mics, drones, body cams) estimated $150k–$400k
Actor Setup $275K
[#19] Actor/performer and promotional-supply one-time setup ($50k–$500k; midpoint used)
Equipment $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $16.1M/yr
Research And Monitoring $6.4M/yr
[#9, #20, #17] R&D program for retrocausality/memetics (~$2M–$10M/year; midpoint used) + frequent-site forensic testing (~$150k–$600k/year) + part of HPC ops; aggregated
Staff Wages $3.1M/yr
[#2] MTF Kappa-3 operational staffing: ~35 FTEs × $90k loaded cost (~$3.15M/year)
Facilities Maintenance $1.2M/yr
[#8] Ongoing operations for hardened containment / safeholding site ($500k–$2M/year; midpoint used)
Media Mitigation $1.1M/yr
[#18] Media-mitigation and disinformation campaigns (~$300k–$2M/year; midpoint used)
Cover Story And Legal $625K/yr
[#12] Corporate liaison, legal retainers, PR baseline (~$250k–$1M/year; midpoint used)
Data Subscriptions $600K/yr
[#5] Data subscriptions and monitoring platforms (satellite, social scraping) ($250k–$1M/year; midpoint used)
Communications Opsec $600K/yr
[#16] Communications, OPSEC, and counterintelligence (~$200k–$1M/year; midpoint used)
Archival Remediation $600K/yr
[#11] Community-history rewriting and records remediation (~$200k–$1M/year; midpoint used)
Per Incident Remediation $500K/yr
[#22] Budgeted per-incident large-scale remediation reserve (per-incident $100k–$5M; annual reserve budgeted)
Logistics And Transport $400K/yr
[#6] Rapid-response vehicle operations, travel, fuel, maintenance, replacement (~$400k/year)
Mobile Containment Maintenance $350K/yr
[#7] Mobile containment device maintenance/consumables (~$200k–$500k/year; midpoint used)
Supplies And Consumables $200K/yr
[#10] Amnestic per-operation baseline consumables and routine supplies (~$200k/year baseline)
Charitable Trust $100K/yr
[#1] Foundation-mandated charitable contribution to Ronald McDonald House Charities ($100k/year, payable quarterly)
Actor Operational $100K/yr
[#19] Actor/performer operational payroll for staged appearances (~$100k/year baseline)
Administrative Overhead $60K/yr
[#21] Annual audit/compliance and inflation adjustments (~$25k–$100k/year; midpoint used)
Covert Surveillance Maintenance $40K/yr
[#4] Covert surveillance maintenance, spares, comms (~$40k/year)
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $16.1M/yr
83.0% probability / year
Normal, uneventful year with routine operations and monitoring only.
no major manifestation routine monitoring and minor incidents only
🚨 Minor Incident $17.6M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$1.6M vs baseline
Localized manifestation requiring emergency deployment, targeted amnestic application, forensic testing, and modest legal/PR response.
single-site manifestation localized property/infrastructure remediation targeted mass-amnestic usage
🚨 Major Incident $46.1M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$30.0M vs baseline
Large-scale reality integration or multiple simultaneous manifestations requiring major reconstruction, mass amnestics, legal settlements, emergency reserve drawdown, and expanded R&D response.
widespread multi-site manifestations mass casualties or infrastructure insertion major public exposure
👥 Personnel 35 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 24 [#2] Primary regional rapid-response agents covering three detachments (majority of the 35 FTEs)
Team Leader / Senior Agent 3 [#2] Team leaders for regional detachments
Medical Officer 4 [#2] Medics embedded with response teams for on-site treatment and amnestic administration
Administrative Staff 4 [#2] Administrative/backfill/support personnel included in the 35 FTE total
📋 Confidence Notes
Many recurring items have wide ranges and scenario-dependent costs (R&D, emergency reserve, per-incident remediation), so midpoint estimates were used; staffing and the charitable trust are well-specified, but overall uncertainty is moderate.
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