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SCP-4648 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-4648
Expected annual
$223K
One-time setup
$662K
Annual recurring
$208K
Personnel
1.45
Baseline one-time setup is estimated at $662,200 driven largely by an optional enhanced containment suite, research setup, and equipment; baseline recurring operations are estimated at $207,633/year driven primarily by staff wages, monitoring/research costs, and a contingency reserve.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $662K
Facilities $500K
[#28] Capital cost for an optional enhanced containment suite / dedicated vault (conditional major facility upgrade; range $200k–$2M).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $100K
[#15, #16] Research lab equipment and instrumentation (~$50,000) plus R&D program budget for neutralization/destruction protocols (~$50,000 one-time).
Amnestic Stockpile One Time $20K
[#21] One-time stockpile and training for amnestic/memetic mitigation (~$10k–$75k one-time).
Equipment $15K
[#1, #5, #12, #14, #22] Secure containment locker purchase & installation (~$5,000), replacement Polaroid camera(s) (~$200), CCTV/tamper hardware install (~$4,000), minimal reinforced/acrylic containment boxes (~$5,000 baseline), and one-time PPE/handling kits (~$1,000).
Disposal Capability $10K
[#23] One-time acquisition/contract set-up for disposal capability (small incinerator or contract hookup; $10k–$100k one-time).
Sop Development $6K
[#11] SOP drafting and initial staff training development one-time cost (~$3k–$10k).
Forensic Server Setup $6K
[#18] Secure server and encrypted backup setup for forensic documentation and secure storage (~$3k–$10k one-time).
Background Checks One Time $5K
[#20] Initial vetting/clearance costs for ~10 personnel (~$1k–$10k one-time).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $208K/yr
Staff Wages $90K/yr
[#6, #7] Research & technical staff payroll plus part-time security oversight (combined pro-rated FTE payroll; typical combined recurring payroll ~$40k–$110k plus security ~$8k–$25k).
Research And Monitoring $42K/yr
[#8, #9, #10, #18, #26, #25, #11] Psychological screening (~$150–$500 per screen), subject compensation & medical standby, post-test counseling, secure data hosting, archival/cataloging administration, ethical oversight board costs, and SOP refresher training (~$1k–$5k/yr).
Contingency Reserve $27K/yr
[#17] Contingency reserve set at ~15% of annual operating cost to respond to incidents (recommended 10–20%).
Cover Story And Legal $10K/yr
[#19] Legal/cover story/public affairs budget for potential incidents (~$5k–$50k/yr depending on risk).
Program Administration $10K/yr
[#29] Administrative overhead for scheduling, procurement, and inventory audits (~$5k–$25k/yr).
Supplies And Consumables $9K/yr
[#3, #4, #5, #16, #21, #22, #27] Archival sleeves (~$100–$600/yr), Polaroid film (~$450–$3,750/yr depending on load), camera maintenance ($100–$500/yr), R&D consumables ($1k–$10k/yr), amnestic replacement ($2k–$10k/yr), PPE replacements ($100–$500/yr), and energy/minor consumables ($200–$2k/yr).
Logistics And Transport $6K/yr
[#13, #23] Secure internal transfers and couriering (~$100–$500 per transfer) plus occasional per-disposal logistics/contract costs (~$200–$2k per disposal).
Insurance $5K/yr
[#24] Institutional insurance / internal risk pool allocations (~$2k–$20k/yr).
Facilities Maintenance $4K/yr
[#2, #12] Storage-room pro-rated overhead/HVAC allocation and CCTV/tamper system maintenance & monitoring duties (~$500–$3k/yr and $1k–$4k/yr respectively).
Audit And Compliance $4K/yr
[#30] Annualized cost for periodic multi-year external audit ($3k–$20k every 2–5 years; annualized here).
Background Checks Rechecks $2K/yr
[#20] Periodic re-screening/rechecks for staff with access (~$50–$300/yr per person; annualized for ~10 people).
Enhanced Program Operations $0/yr
[#28] Conditional recurring operational cost for a fully enhanced containment program (range $150k–$500k/yr); baseline set to $0 unless activated (see scenarios).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $208K/yr
95.0% probability / year
Normal year of operations with no major incidents or upgrades; standard testing cadence and periodic maintenance.
routine_testing no_containment_incidents
🚨 Minor Incident $248K/yr
3.0% probability / year +$40K vs baseline
Containment or subject-related incident requiring emergency response, overtime, additional counseling, legal support, and short-term increased security.
small_containment_breach subject_psychological_breakdown unexpected_animation_behavior
🚨 Enhanced Program Activation $908K/yr
2.0% probability / year +$700K vs baseline
Decision or necessity to activate the enhanced containment program (dedicated suite, expanded staff and full-time containment team) due to prints exhibiting dangerous/independent behavior.
prints_exhibit_dangerous_behavior sustained_risk_to_personnel regulatory_or_public_exposure
👥 Personnel 1.45 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 0.3 [#6] Principal researcher FTE (0.2–0.5 FTE projected; pro-rated salary included in staff_wages).
Technician 0.75 [#6] Technician FTEs to run tests and handle camera/prints (0.5–1.0 FTE range; pro-rated).
Security Officer / MTF Agent 0.2 [#7] On-call/escort security oversight (0.1–0.3 FTE equivalent; pro-rated and included in staff_wages).
Medical Officer (on-call) 0.05 [#9] Medical standby for tests and emergency amnestic administration (on-call fractional FTE).
Administrative Staff 0.15 [#29] Program administration for scheduling, procurement, inventory; pro-rated admin FTE (administrative cost also captured under program_administration).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide specific line-item ranges and a clear containment approach; however many items are conditional with wide ranges (enhanced containment, R&D outcomes, incident frequency) so cost estimates retain moderate uncertainty.
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