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SCP-4649 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-4649
Expected annual
$4.2M
One-time setup
$21.5M
Annual recurring
$3.8M
Personnel
14
Initial capital expenditure is dominated by bunker construction, relocation/resettlement and mass amnesticization costs, producing a large up-front bill (~$21.5M). Recurring annual operations (security, research, medical, monitoring, and relocation support) run roughly $3.82M/yr, with occasional high-cost breach years possible.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $21.5M
Relocation Initial $10.0M
[#19] Initial rehousing, identity replacement and resettlement support for ~1,000 affected civilians (midpoint $10k/person).
Amnesticization Initial Event $3.5M
[#18] One-time amnesticization/medical/relocation processing for ~1,000 attendees at initial event (per-person midpoint ~$3,500).
Facilities $2.9M
[#5, #6] Bunker construction (excavation, reinforced concrete) and fit-out including HVAC/power redundancy and environmental controls.
Contingency Reserve $1.5M
[#23] Contingency reserve (recommended 10–30% of capital) to cover unforeseen capital/operational overruns.
Countermeasure Initial Development $1.0M
[#15] Up-front costs for initial medical countermeasure development, preclinical testing and regulatory/legal setup.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $600K
[#13] Scientific instrumentation and laboratory buildout for initial anomaly research (mass specs, gas analyzers, forensic kits).
Equipment $530K
[#4, #7, #11, #12, #27] Custom containment crate, security systems installation, initial armory/PPE purchases, remote/robotic handling hardware, and initial data storage hardware.
Decommissioning Reserve $500K
[#29] Reserve for eventual decommissioning/disposal and possible environmental remediation.
Secure Transport $250K
[#3] Heavy/oversized cargo transport with armed escort; mid-range international airlift/oversize ground shipping estimate.
Coverup One Time $200K
[#20] One-time cover-up, PR suppression, and local liaison payments for the event.
Field Recovery $150K
[#1] Covert field recovery operations: planning, personnel mobilization, travel, lodging, translators, overtime/hazard pay.
Diplomatic Liaison One Time $150K
[#21] International diplomatic/liaison and safehouse/proxy setup costs for cross-border operations.
Staff Recruitment And Vetting $100K
[#8] Recruitment, vetting and initial training costs for a female-only security team (6–12 hires).
Legal Initial $75K
[#22] Initial legal/ethical compliance, internal review and documentation costs.
Environmental Monitoring Setup $50K
[#16] Installation of groundwater/soil monitoring infrastructure and initial baseline testing.
Data Storage Initial $40K
[#27] Initial high-availability encrypted storage and CCTV archiving hardware.
Heavy Equipment Rental $15K
[#2] Crane, forklift and rigging rental and crew for disassembly & loading (short-term rental assumed).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $3.8M/yr
Staff Wages $1.6M/yr
[#9, #10, #14] Security payroll (female-only, 8 staff incl. benefits), on-site medical staffing and long-term research staff salaries (3–6 FTEs aggregated).
Research And Monitoring $830K/yr
[#13, #15, #16, #17] Ongoing research consumables/staff time, countermeasure R&D budget, groundwater/environmental sampling and periodic forensic experiment campaigns.
Logistics And Transport $650K/yr
[#18, #19] Recurring amnestic follow-ups/medical monitoring and ongoing relocation/resettlement support and related transport.
Opportunity Cost $250K/yr
[#28] Opportunity cost representing 1–3 FTEs worth of reassigned staff and lost project capacity.
Facilities Maintenance $195K/yr
[#6, #7, #12, #24] HVAC/generator maintenance and fuel, security system licenses/maintenance, robotic/remote-equipment maintenance, routine bunker utilities/contractors.
Cover Story And Legal $180K/yr
[#20, #22, #30] Ongoing cover-story/PR monitoring, legal support, and public surveillance/witness management.
Supplies And Consumables $57K/yr
[#11, #26, #27] Armory/PPE replacements and non-lethal consumables, biohazard disposables and recurring data storage/archiving fees.
Training And Drills $50K/yr
[#25] Regular training, psychological re-screening, and emergency drills.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $3.8M/yr
90.0% probability / year
Normal operating year with no major incidents; routine research, monitoring, payroll, and ongoing relocation support only.
no_breach routine_operations
🚨 Minor Incident $4.8M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Localized containment incident requiring emergency medical response, limited amnesticization (≈100 people), short-term repairs and overtime.
localized_breach emergency_medical_response limited_amnestic_campaign
🚨 Major Breach $18.8M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$15.0M vs baseline
Major public event breach or discovery requiring mass amnesticization and mass relocation plus remediation and legal/cover operations.
large_public_event mass_amnesticization extensive_relocation
👥 Personnel 14 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 8 [#8, #9] Female-only security staff (initial hiring/vetting #8) and ongoing payroll (#9); staffing covers 24/7 rotations with spares.
Research Scientist 4 [#13, #14, #15] Science staff to run instrumentation and countermeasure R&D (instrumentation #13; salaries & long-term staff #14; ongoing development #15).
Medical Officer 2 [#10, #18] On-site medic/physician coverage and support for amnesticization/medical follow-ups and emergency response.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates use midpoints from analyst ranges and a 1,000-attendee example; large uncertainty remains around attendee counts, geopolitical extraction costs, and scope/intensity of ongoing countermeasure R&D, hence medium confidence.
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