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SCP-4770 Euclid ~ medium confidence
SCP-4770
Expected annual
$6.1M
One-time setup
$9.3M
Annual recurring
$5.7M
Personnel
51
Initial capital/setup is substantial (multi-million dollars), driven primarily by constructing sealed humanoid cells, research lab buildout, and a contingency reserve. Annual operations are driven by security/MTF readiness, clinical containment for infected hosts, and logistics/response operations, producing multi-million-dollar recurring costs.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $9.3M
Contingency Reserve Allocation $5.0M
[#20] Minimum recommended contingency reserve for catastrophic or large-scale outbreaks.
Facilities $2.0M
[#1] Cost to modify/build up to 5 sealed humanoid containment cells (stainless surfaces, negative-pressure HVAC integration, two-stage airlocks, observation windows, passthroughs, autoclave/chemical pass-throughs).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.5M
[#9] Multi-year research startup: PI, postdocs/techs, specialized microscopy (SEM/TEM), proteomics/sequencing instrument access and lab buildout for physiology/detection/neutralization work.
Equipment $615K
[#3, #10, #14] Initial PPE stock (masks/kits for staff), detection development/pilot purchase (field spectrometers/portable imaging development), and one transport vehicle purchase.
Emergency Stockpile Initial $125K
[#18] Initial purchase of neutralizing agents, detergents, spare HEPA filters, mask cartridges, and medical supplies stockpile.
Sop And Initial Training $80K
[#15] SOP development and initial staff training sessions, clearance processing policy setup.
Policy Rollout Site Or Foundation $5K
[#16] Site-17 policy rollout (ban on specific cake types, retraining, signage) assumed site-level one-time cost.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $5.7M/yr
Staff Wages $1.7M/yr
[#5] Site security staffing (4 guards/shift × 3 shifts) and MTF readiness pool (12 operators) salaries/benefits/training as recurring payroll expense.
Clinical Medical Containment $1.2M/yr
[#4] Ongoing costs to medically contain and treat SCP-4770-3 hosts (isolation nursing, meds, psychiatric care, surgeries/euthanasia, special diets) assuming up to five instances utilized.
Logistics And Transport $650K/yr
[#6, #12, #14] Field deployment/eradication operations (MTF raid costs), contaminated waste handling/incineration contracts, and per-transfer operational transport costs (armed escort, containment vehicles).
Cover Story And Legal $500K/yr
[#7, #17] Ongoing cover-story PR/legal/intel work to coordinate false public-health reports, liaison with local authorities, and small dedicated legal/PR/intel team costs.
Compensation And Business Replacement $500K/yr
[#13] Reimbursement and compensation for civilian businesses (closures, lost revenue, settlements) when forced closures or inventory destruction occur.
Research And Monitoring $450K/yr
[#9, #19] Ongoing research program costs (personnel, consumables, instrument access) plus epidemiology/modeling team and computing resources for outbreak surveillance.
Supplies And Consumables $212K/yr
[#3, #10, #18, #8, #15] PPE cartridge replacements/consumables, per-test detection consumables, emergency stockpile restock, amnestic administration consumables, and annual training materials.
Inspection And Undercover Ops $200K/yr
[#11] Regular inspections, undercover operations at targeted bakeries/shops, sampling, travel and per-inspection costs.
Facilities Maintenance $120K/yr
[#2] HVAC and environmental control running costs for negative-pressure cells, HEPA/carbon filter replacement and calibration, higher energy draw and regular maintenance.
Staff Psychological Support $50K/yr
[#22] Counseling, EAP and mental-health monitoring for staff exposed to infected hosts and cover operations.
Long Term Supply Chain Surveillance $25K/yr
[#21] Targeted supplier audits and monitoring of key sucrose/frosting suppliers (targeted approach rather than broad regional monitoring).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $5.7M/yr
74.0% probability / year
Routine year with no major outbreaks; regular operations, planned research and inspections continue.
no_large_outbreak routine_inspections ongoing_research
🚨 Minor Incident $5.9M/yr
20.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline
One or a few localized outbreaks requiring several MTF raids, targeted clinical care and cover operations.
small_local_outbreak 1-3_bakeries_affected limited_clinical_cases
🚨 Major Breach $7.7M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Widespread multi-site outbreak across several municipalities requiring large MTF mobilization, mass disposal, compensation and expanded clinical capacity.
multi_municipality_spread mass_nesting_sites expanded_clinical_quarantine
🚨 Catastrophic Outbreak $30.7M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$25.0M vs baseline
Uncontrolled regional spread requiring major emergency reserve deployment, mass amnestic operations, nationwide reprisal measures and large reputational management costs.
regional_uncontrolled_spread mass_host_generation national_response_required
👥 Personnel 51 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 24 [#5] 12 site security guards (4 per shift × 3 shifts) plus 12 operators in the MTF readiness pool.
Research Scientist 4 [#9] PI and postdoctoral researchers supporting SCP-4770 physiology, detection, and neutralization research.
Laboratory Technician 2 [#9] Bench techs supporting sequencing, microscopy and assay work.
Medical Officer 6 [#4] Medical/nursing staff for secure clinical containment of infected hosts and outbreak casualties.
Engineer / Maintenance 2 [#2, #1] HVAC and negative-pressure system maintenance and cell upkeep.
Legal / Intelligence / PR Staff 4 [#7, #17] Small team to manage cover stories, legal coordination and monitoring public reporting.
Administrative Staff 3 [#15, #16] SOP development, training coordination, and policy rollout administration.
Logistics / Transport Operators 3 [#14, #6] Drivers and armed escort personnel for specimen/instance transfers and field deployments (additional contractual/OT costs captured elsewhere).
Epidemiologist / Modeler 2 [#19] Surveillance and outbreak-risk modeling team.
Mental Health / Counselor 1 [#22] Staff psychological support and counseling resources.
📋 Confidence Notes
Line-item cost ranges are provided in analyst notes and used to produce mid-range numeric estimates; however outbreak frequency, scale of field operations, and how much existing Site-17 infrastructure can be reused are uncertain, so total recurring exposure and scenario probabilities retain moderate uncertainty.
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