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SCP-4843 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-4843
Expected annual
$1.1M
One-time setup
$6.5M
Annual recurring
$1.0M
Personnel
11
Initial setup costs are dominated by potential exhumation/tunnelling and structural work; baseline annual operating costs are driven by security staff, monitoring, research support, and insurance. Estimated one-time capital outlay is about $6.46M with recurring costs near $1.00M/yr.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $6.5M
Facilities $5.4M
[#1, #2, #14, #15] Land/site control, reinforced cap and shoring, initial geotechnical survey, and worst-case exhumation/tunnelling contingency (largest single drivers).
Equipment $262K
[#4, #5, #7, #12, #19, #22] Remote and subterranean-capable sensors and cameras, power & communications hardware/backup systems, autoclave & PPE startup equipment, two secure vehicles, hardened servers/backups, and secure storage racks.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $245K
[#13, #6] Secure laboratory buildout and instruments (cold storage, analytical equipment start-up) and baseline environmental/hydrogeological testing.
Emergency Response Reserve $200K
[#16] Rapid-deployment / emergency response reserve to pay for MTF response, temporary perimeters and rapid logistics (refill as used).
Scientific Contingency Reserve $150K
[#25] Small contingency reserve for unanticipated scientific surprises, specialized assays, or contract specialists.
Legal Emergency Fund $50K
[#11] One-time emergency legal/PR contingency fund reserved for lawsuits or major exposures.
Amnestic Initial Cohort $35K
[#9] Initial amnestic treatments and cover-story preparation for an estimated initial cohort of ~10 subjects.
Cover Ops Initial Fund $30K
[#10] Discretionary fund to establish cemetery management/cover relationships and small local payments.
Training Initial $25K
[#18] Initial SOP development and staff training costs.
Forensic Retainer Initial $20K
[#8] Initial retainer/consultation with pathologists and coroner coordination.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.0M/yr
Staff Wages $545K/yr
[#3, #13, #20, #27] Salaries and benefits for continuous security coverage (6 guards), core research staff, OSINT/media monitoring staff or contractors, and limited administrative/oversight staff.
Supplies And Consumables $110K/yr
[#7, #13, #21] PPE consumables, research consumables and repeat-sampling consumables necessitated by regeneration (sterile kits, vials, shipping).
Incident Insurance And Liability Reserve $100K/yr
[#17] Annual reserved funds for settlements, hush payments, or uninsured losses in the event of exposure.
Research And Monitoring $97K/yr
[#4, #6, #8, #14, #26] Ongoing sensor monitoring costs, periodic environmental testing, recurring forensic/pathology consultancy, periodic inspections, and repeated noninvasive imaging/GPR campaigns.
Cover Story And Legal $65K/yr
[#9, #10, #11] Ongoing amnestic program budget for incidental witnesses, relationship/cover payments to local contacts, and legal/PR retainer fees.
Facilities Maintenance $20K/yr
[#14, #24, #22] Periodic structural inspections, routine site maintenance/landscaping, and secure storage upkeep.
Logistics And Transport $15K/yr
[#12] Vehicle fuel, insurance, maintenance and sample transport costs for two secure vehicles.
Training And Certification $15K/yr
[#18] Annual recertification, exercises, and SOP updates for security, science, and cover personnel.
Psychological Care $15K/yr
[#23] Ongoing psychological support and compensation for cover-actors and staff affected by operations.
Power And Comms Maintenance $10K/yr
[#5] Fuel, generator maintenance, UPS upkeep and secure communications link operational costs.
Data Security Maintenance $5K/yr
[#19] Hosting, encrypted backups, and maintenance for hardened servers and records archives.
Oversight And Audit $5K/yr
[#27] Averaged annual cost for periodic audits, oversight reviews and travel for rotating officers.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.0M/yr
85.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with ongoing monitoring, routine research activity, and no major incidents.
no trespass events no public exposure routine monitoring and research
🚨 Minor Incident $1.1M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$120K vs baseline
Localized trespass or minor media attention requiring overtime, amnestics for a few witnesses, and emergency response activation.
trespasser(s) local social media post small-scale containment response
🚨 Major Breach Exposure $1.5M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$450K vs baseline
Significant public exposure or legal action requiring large legal/PR spending, settlements, and extended emergency operations.
widespread media coverage lawsuit or public investigation multiple witness disclosures
🚨 Exhumation And Heavy Rnd $6.5M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$5.5M vs baseline
Deliberate decision to conduct full exhumation/tunnelling and intensive research, incurring multi-million-dollar one-time civil and R&D costs.
policy decision to investigate interior research-scale excavation contract major civil engineering mobilization
👥 Personnel 11 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 6 [#3] Continuous on-site coverage (6 guards to provide two-per-shift rotation and overlap).
Research Scientist 2 [#13] Core scientists to manage sampling, analyses, and coordination with external labs.
Administrative Staff 1 [#10, #27] Site/admin support for cover operations, payments, and audit coordination.
OSINT / Media Analyst 1 [#20] Monitoring social media/local news and maintaining cover narratives.
Engineer / Maintenance 1 [#14] Periodic inspections, liaison with contractors, and minor site maintenance oversight.
📋 Confidence Notes
Notes provide detailed ranges for most line items, enabling midpoint estimates, but several large items (exhumation/tunnelling, long-term land control, and research intensity) have wide tails, so uncertainty remains.
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