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SCP-4949 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-4949
Expected annual
$970K
One-time setup
$845K
Annual recurring
$946K
Personnel
3
Initial one-time setup is moderate but dominated by a recommended contingency/reserve; recurring annual costs are driven by contracted medical teams, liability insurance, medical consumables, subject procurement, and program overhead.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $845K
Contingency Reserve $500K
[#26] One-time recommended catastrophic/emergency reserve (selected midpoint of $250k–$1M recommendation).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $225K
[#7] Operating room / sterile facility refit for on-site OR (midpoint of $150k–$300k range).
Equipment $45K
[#1, #2, #3, #15, #17, #18] Secure locker upgrade hardware, tamper-evident transport case, CCTV/env sensors, dedicated transport crate, replica production, one-time IT setup.
Decommissioning $30K
[#24] One-time secure destruction / specialist disposal contingency (midpoint of $10k–$50k).
Legal Framework Setup $30K
[#11] One-time legal/ethics review framework setup (midpoint of $10k–$50k).
Facilities $6K
[#23] Child-safety infrastructure one-time upgrades (locks, fences, visitor controls).
Policy Development $5K
[#5] One-time site policy & HR controls development to prohibit minors.
Conservation Assessment $4K
[#16] One-time conservation assessment for plastic components (midpoint of $2k–$5k).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $946K/yr
Staff Wages $190K/yr
[#4, #6] Two full-time security guards (~$80k) plus contracted/PI medical team baseline testing costs (~$100k–$120k annualized).
Supplies And Consumables $128K/yr
[#2, #8, #27] Replacement tamper tapes (~$200/yr), medical consumables per testing program (budget midpoint ~$125k/yr), misc PPE/sterilants (~$3k/yr).
Subject Procurement $125K/yr
[#9] Cadaver/animal/human volunteer procurement and compensation budget (midpoint of $50k–$200k/yr).
Liability Insurance $125K/yr
[#12] Liability/malpractice-style risk pool (midpoint of $50k–$200k/yr).
Cover Story And Legal $110K/yr
[#11, #14] Ongoing legal/ethics retainers and PR/cover budgets (legal retainer midpoint ~$60k/yr; PR/containment ~$50k/yr).
Amnestic Budget $50K/yr
[#13] Amnestic stock, per-subject administration costs, and field ops contingency (~$50k/yr recommended).
Logistics And Transport $40K/yr
[#15] Vehicle/driver operations for secure transport (midpoint $30k–$50k/yr).
Emergency Medical Standby $32K/yr
[#10] Ambulance/hospital transfer standby for test days (midpoint of estimated annual $15k–$50k).
Program Overhead $32K/yr
[#28] Program manager FTE portion (0.2–0.5 FTE midpoint) and management overhead (~$15k–$50k/yr midpoint).
Forensic Investigation $25K/yr
[#21] Forensic incident response allocation (~$25k/yr recommended).
Or Rental $20K/yr
[#7] Occasional hospital OR rental for tests when on-site OR not used (estimated $2k–$5k/day × assumed usage).
Psychological Care $12K/yr
[#19] Counseling and staff aftercare contracts (~$5k–$20k/yr midpoint).
Market Monitoring $12K/yr
[#22] Monitoring consumer marketplaces and takedowns (midpoint $5k–$20k/yr).
Policy Admin And Hr $10K/yr
[#5] Administrative overhead for enforcing no-minors policy, background checks, visitor vetting (~$10k/yr).
Training And Certification $10K/yr
[#20] Annual pediatric/emergency training and protocol certification (~$5k–$15k/yr midpoint).
Data Hosting $8K/yr
[#18] Secure hosting, encrypted archives, and maintenance (~$5k–$10k/yr midpoint).
Regulatory Compliance $8K/yr
[#25] Liaison and compliance costs with health authorities (~$5k–$10k/yr midpoint).
Preservation Maintenance $3K/yr
[#16] Ongoing conservation work and archival materials for plastic components (~$1k–$5k/yr).
Facilities Maintenance $2K/yr
[#1, #23] Tamper-seal / logging maintenance (~$500/yr) and child-safety enforcement/maintenance (~$2k/yr).
Cctv And Data Storage $2K/yr
[#3] Camera and environmental sensor data storage/monitoring (~$2k/yr).
Research And Monitoring $0/yr
[]
Contingency Reserve Contribution $0/yr
[#26] Optional recurring contributions toward a larger emergency reserve (zero assumed; one-time reserve funded above).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $946K/yr
89.5% probability / year
Normal year with periodic authorized testing and no major incidents.
scheduled_authorized_tests routine_maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $1.0M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$60K vs baseline
Small unauthorized use or localized incident requiring investigation, limited amnestic use, and forensic response.
unauthorized_local_use single-subject exposure limited_media_leak
🚨 Major Breach $1.4M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Multiple-exposure event or larger public incident requiring mass amnestic deployment, major PR and legal expense, and emergency medical operations.
widespread_public_exposure multiple_witnesses hospital-level complications
🚨 Catastrophic Public Exposure $2.9M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Low-probability, high-impact mass exposure event requiring extensive mitigation, large settlements or covert operations, and major rebuild of containment/cover.
mass_exposure viral_media_spread multi-jurisdictional legal actions
👥 Personnel 3 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 2 [#4] Two full-time guards budgeted (~$40k each including benefits) for on-site security and on-call test coverage.
Research Scientist / Medical Team (FTE-equivalent) 1 [#6] Budgeted contracted medical/research team annualized as ~1 FTE equivalent to cover PI/coordination and aggregated contracted OR team costs (annualized ~$100k–$120k).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges for nearly all costs; however many entries are ranges and contingent on testing frequency and incident likelihood, producing moderate uncertainty.
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