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SCP-515 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-515
Expected annual
$104.9M
One-time setup
$198.0M
Annual recurring
$89.0M
Personnel
50
Foundation operational one-time capital ≈ $198M (secure sites, tracking assets, contracts, lab/HW); recurring operational baseline ≈ $88.99M/yr driven by staff, astronomical monitoring, and a modest intercept reserve. Systemic economic exposure (if an object impacts) is tracked separately — a modeled regional 1–5 km impact is estimated at ~$200B one-time; truly multi-10 km/global impacts are unquantifiable and not something the Foundation can budget to prevent.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $198.0M
Facilities $75.0M
Hardened subterranean containment suite with anti-tamper doors, access airlocks, nearby command/control room and one alternate secure site/safehouse. Mid-range buildout assuming deep-site excavation, vibration damping and isolation systems. (Derived from analyst range #1 and #13.)
Launch Contracts Initial $50.0M
One-time capital to establish pre-negotiated contracts/retainers and initial deposit lines with commercial/national heavy-launch providers to reduce lead time for intercept missions. This is an initial contracting outlay, not the full mission budgets.
Astronomical Tracking Assets $30.0M
Initial procurement/lease and/or targeted smallsat launch for higher-cadence tracking of the ~19 objects (SCP-515-1), plus radar upgrades and dedicated telescopic time. Analyst range suggested $20M–$100M; mid-range small-constellation and ground upgrades chosen.
Kinetic Contingency Preparations $25.0M
Preparatory program and specialized instrumentation for contingency planning (legal frameworks, safety engineering, specialized sensors and training simulations). Explicitly excludes stockpiling or deployment of sovereign nuclear weapons (Foundation cannot lawfully perform state-level nuclear deployment).
Equipment $15.0M
Custom immobilization systems and spares, high-resolution physiological/motion capture hardware, redundant generators and HVAC hardware, armored transport and medevac helicopter procurement, archival hardware. Componentized estimate: restraints/spares ~$300k; monitoring hardware ~$600k; power/HVAC hardware ~$1.2M; armored vehicle + medevac ~$7.6M; telescope upgrades/ground hardware ~$5M; archival ~$300k.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $3.0M
High-performance computing cluster, n-body simulation software licensing and lab fitout for orbital modelling and initial materials/forensics research (componentized: HPC ~$2M, software and setup ~$1M).
Catastrophic Mitigation Reserve $0
Analyst item (#25) for a program to reliably deflect multi-10 km objects is functionally infeasible for a single non-state organization. Current human technology cannot guarantee defense against objects tens of km across; costs approach or exceed global GDP and require international sovereign mobilization. Per Rule 2, the Foundation cannot credibly budget a single-cost figure for this impossible task. Instead, Foundation funds research and modest contingency planning (see kinetic_contingency_preparations and research_and_monitoring).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $89.0M/yr
Intercept Mission Reserve $40.0M/yr
Amortized annual reserve to fund at least one medium-cost intercept/deflection mission every ~5 years (typical feasible mission to sub-5 km objects is in the low hundreds of millions). This is a Foundation program reserve amortized for readiness, not a guarantee of success against very large objects.
Research And Monitoring $24.5M/yr
Continuous astronomical tracking operations (ground stations, satellite tasking), HPC cluster operations and licensing, forensic/tamper research, physiological monitoring operations, and a bounded planetary-defense R&D effort focused on trajectory prediction, small-body intercept technologies at sizes Foundation can credibly address, and fundamental research into the SCP linkage. Componentized: tracking ops ~$2M/yr, HPC ops ~$500k/yr, targeted R&D ~$20M/yr (modest, long-term program), forensic/tamper ~$1M/yr, archival/comms ~$150k/yr, phys monitoring ops ~$850k/yr.
Staff Wages $7.1M/yr
Salaries + benefits for full-time operational staff: ~30 security personnel (round-the-clock coverage), ~8 medical/behavioral staff, ~6 research staff, ~4 technical/operations (engineers, pilots), ~2 admin/support. Componentized to reflect shift premiums and benefits.
Launch Contracts Retainer $5.0M/yr
Annual retainer/standing contract fees to maintain prioritized access to heavy-launch vehicles and deep-space tugs negotiated with providers and partner states.
Evacuation Reserve Annualized $5.0M/yr
Small annualized reserve for local containment-area mitigation, temporary sheltering of affected civilians where the Foundation is responsible, and modest compensation/buyouts in limited-exposure scenarios. Large-scale evacuations remain systemic costs borne by states and are tracked separately.
Logistics And Transport $3.5M/yr
Operations/maintenance for armored transport and medevac helicopter, per-event rapid-recapture/search amortized reserve, and routine travel/logistics for site operations. Includes an annualized search contingency and aircraft/helicopter maintenance.
Cover Story And Legal $2.5M/yr
Legal teams, intelligence liaison/covert diplomacy, cover-story maintenance and limited information-operations budgets for routine secrecy/partner agreements. Note: this does NOT include attempts to conceal global-scale impact events (see Systemic notes).
Facilities Maintenance $600K/yr
Routine testing, fuel and maintenance for redundant power, HVAC/isolation systems, and site upkeep; higher than minimal site due to deep-site redundancy and periodic full-system testing.
Staff Training Drills $500K/yr
Regular breach-response drills, multi-agency simulations, and resilience training for staff who respond to escapes or high-risk trajectory events.
Supplies And Consumables $250K/yr
Medical consumables, wound care supplies, pressure-sore prevention materials, routine clinical imaging consumables and daily operational consumables for containment suite.
Restraint Maintenance $25K/yr
Maintenance, testing and periodic replacement of custom restraints, tamper sensors and orthopedic braces.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $89.0M/yr
90.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine containment, monitoring, maintenance, and modest R&D/preparement funding; no escape events that trigger major searches or intercept missions.
no escape no imminent-impact trajectory identified routine operations only
🚨 Minor Incident $94.0M/yr
6.9% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Short-term containment failure or local escape requiring a concentrated multi-day search/recapture and modest PR/legal response.
temporary restraint/tamper sensor failure short-term off-site discovery requiring local search limited local exposure requiring legal/compensation measures
🚨 Major Breach $609.0M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$520.0M vs baseline
Extended uncontrolled motion or escape that produces an imminent impact trajectory for one or more SCP-515-1 objects of a size the Foundation and partners can credibly attempt to intercept (e.g., sub-5 km). Triggers large recapture operation and at least one intercept mission mobilization.
extended uncontrolled locomotion / escape imminent impact trajectory for a sub-5 km object international coordination to mount intercept/deflection
🚨 Catastrophic Impact $99.0M/yr
0.1% probability / year +$10.0M vs baseline
A trajectory for a very large SCP-515-1 object (multi-10 km) where preventing impact via deflection is effectively impossible for a single organization. The resulting global consequences are systemic and largely outside the Foundation's ability to prevent.
multi-10 km object on impact trajectory failure of any feasible interception option global-scale humanitarian crisis
👥 Personnel 50 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 30 24/7 on-site armed security force to maintain containment and rapid response teams; shift coverage and redundancy require ~30 staff.
Medical / Behavioral Staff 8 Trauma surgeon(s), neurologist(s), sleep researcher(s), psychiatrist and nursing/EMT staff on-call and scheduled rotations.
Research Scientists / Orbital Modelers 6 Physicists, orbital dynamicists, forensic/tamper researchers and data scientists to maintain trajectory models and investigate escape mechanisms.
Technical / Operations (engineers, pilots, IT) 4 Facility engineers, pilots for medevac, IT/HPC administrators and systems engineers for monitoring/comms.
Administrative / Legal / Liaison 2 Administrative support, legal and liaison staff handling agreements, partner coordination and cover-story maintenance.
📋 Confidence Notes
This re-evaluation corrects the prior report's large unitemized 'catastrophic reserve' by (a) explicitly zeroing any single-organization line for attempting to defend against multi-10 km bodies (infeasible) and (b) itemizing feasible Foundation expenses for routine containment, tracking, intercepts of smaller objects, and R&D. Numbers for routine operations and moderate incidents are reasonably constrained by componentized salary, equipment and program estimates; tail-risk systemic damages remain highly uncertain (noted and separated). Probabilities are subjective but conservative; overall confidence is medium due to high tail-risk uncertainty and dependence on partner-state capabilities for intercepts.
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