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SCP-5495 Unknown ? low confidence
EXTDOC-5495
Expected annual
$33.0M
One-time setup
$133.7M
Annual recurring
$31.1M
Personnel
151
Initial one-time capital and response costs are dominated by potential procurement of an MSRA and a long-term endowment (~$134M one-time), while recurring annual costs (~$31.1M/yr) are driven by standing tactical forces, POI long-term care, and ongoing research/monitoring.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $133.7M
Equipment $55.2M
[#2, #4, #6, #9, #23] MSRA procurement (capital) $50,000,000 (order-of-magnitude $20M–$200M), Kant counters & mapping gear $500,000, remote-handling hardware $600,000, telekill-lined urns $3,520,000, data/hardened servers procurement $600,000.
Long Term Endowment $50.0M
[#25] Lump-sum endowment for 150-year stewardship (ballpark chosen $50,000,000 within $10M–$200M range).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $6.0M
[#7] Specialized laboratory instrumentation and shielded test-chamber installation (chosen midpoint $6,000,000 of $2M–$10M).
Contingency Seed One Time $5.0M
[#26] Containment R&D / investigation contingency seed (chosen $5,000,000 of $1M–$20M).
Facilities $4.2M
[#5, #9] Site-34 containment cell retrofit ($3,000,000 midpoint of $1M–$5M) plus vault construction/sensor integration ($1,250,000 midpoint of $0.5M–$2M).
Countermeasures Rd Seed $2.8M
[#14] Initial specialized pharmaceuticals / remediation R&D seed (midpoint $2.75M of $0.5M–$5M).
Incident Response Reserve Seed $2.5M
[#15] One-time seed for containment breach reserve (midpoint $2.5M of recommended $0.5M–$5M).
Cremation Processing $1.9M
[#10] Controlled cremation and remains processing for ~352 bodies; midpoint $1,925,000 of $350k–$3.5M.
Mass Amnestics Initial $1.9M
[#11] Initial mass amnesticization/medical stabilization for survivors/witnesses (midpoint ~$1.9M of $300k–$7.5M).
Reconstruction Fund One Time $1.8M
[#24] One-time collateral reconstruction/compensation fund (midpoint $1.75M of $0.5M–$5M).
Amnestic Stockpile Initial $1.1M
[#18] Initial amnestic manufacturing/stockpile and QA (midpoint $1,125,000 of $250k–$2M).
Local Cover One Time $525K
[#17] One-time local liaison/cover-up contingency (midpoint $525k of $50k–$1M).
Pr One Time $275K
[#27] One-time public relations / misinformation buys for localized event (midpoint $275k of $50k–$500k).
Logistics Transport One Time $175K
[#16] Single secured transport (Afghanistan → Site-34) and escorts (midpoint $175,000 of $50k–$300k).
Tactical Initial Deployment $160K
[#3] Initial 24–48 hour emergency mobilization cost for ~40 personnel (midpoint ~$160,000 of $70k–$250k).
Ppe Initial Stock $88K
[#13] Initial PPE/decontamination stock (chosen $87,500 of $25k–$150k).
Emergency Aerial Insertion $85K
[#1] CH-47 Chinook sortie and airlift logistics; midpoint used ($85,000 of $50k–$120k).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $31.1M/yr
Poi Long Term Care $10.0M/yr
[#12] Annual humane containment and medical care for Persons of Interest (10–30 POIs; midpoint annual estimate $10M used).
Tactical Standing Force $6.5M/yr
[#3] Annual cost to maintain a regional rapid-response tactical force on standby ($3M–$10M range; midpoint used).
Research And Monitoring $4.2M/yr
[#7, #11, #14, #25] Ongoing research program budget, follow-up medical monitoring, and long-term contamination monitoring (includes recurring R&D spend and monitoring: ~$4.15M/yr).
Staff Wages $3.8M/yr
[#8] Dedicated research staff payroll (small specialized team: senior researchers + techs/support).
Personnel Security $2.5M/yr
[#21] Site security staffing, training, and access control for Site-34 (annual $1M–$4M; midpoint used).
Cover Story And Legal $700K/yr
[#17, #20, #27] Administrative/legal/cover-story budgets, liaison payments, and crisis PR during sustained post-event period.
Incident Response Reserve Replenishment $500K/yr
[#15] Annual replenishment target for incident response reserve to maintain readiness.
Contingency Investigation Recurring $500K/yr
[#26] Ongoing budget for locating additional components or follow-up investigations (recurring set-aside).
Supplies And Consumables $450K/yr
[#7, #13] Laboratory consumables, annual calibration/consumables for instruments, PPE replenishment (combined).
Energy And Utilities $360K/yr
[#19] Power, fuel, HVAC and UPS costs for containment vaults and anchoring systems (~$120k–$600k/yr).
Storage Monitoring $325K/yr
[#9] Annual monitoring, security, and maintenance of telekill-lined urn vaults ($150k–$500k/yr).
Msra Deployment Activation $300K/yr
[#2] Per-deployment activation/preparation cost for a Mobile Scranton Reality Anchor when deployed to field (~$150k–$500k per activation; averaged).
Training And Drills $300K/yr
[#22] Annual exercises and simulations for containment and medical readiness ($100k–$500k/yr).
Data Management Annual $250K/yr
[#23] Annual IT maintenance, backups, and classified archive upkeep ($100k–$400k/yr).
Facilities Maintenance $200K/yr
[#5] Ongoing maintenance for containment cell, shielding, and facility infrastructure.
Amnestic Replenishment $175K/yr
[#18] Annual replenishment/expiry replacement and QA for amnestic stockpile ($50k–$300k/yr).
Logistics And Transport $100K/yr
[#16, #18] Routine secure transport, refrigerated transfer and couriering, periodic amnestic shipments.
Remote Handling Maintenance $60K/yr
[#6] Annual maintenance and spares for manipulators and tooling ($20k–$100k/yr).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $31.1M/yr
82.0% probability / year
A normal year with routine operations, no major incidents or large deployments.
routine operations no MSRA redeployments no large-scale breaches
🚨 Minor Incident $32.6M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline
Localized flare requiring a single MSRA activation, short tactical deployment, and limited amnestic/medical operations.
localized outbreak single MSRA activation limited casualties
🚨 Major Breach $86.1M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$55.0M vs baseline
Large containment breach or discovery of additional components requiring procurement of new anomalous hardware, major reconstruction, and mass medical/amnestic operations.
MSRA failure widespread contamination international exposure
👥 Personnel 151 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 8 [#8] Senior ontokinetics/materials researchers (L4) - part of dedicated research payroll.
Research Technician / Engineer 6 [#8] Lab technicians, instrument operators, containment engineers supporting reverse-engineering.
Security Officer / MTF Agent (rapid response) 100 [#3] Regional rapid-response tactical team personnel (standing-force estimate tied to tactical_standing_force recurring cost).
Security Officer / Site Defense 30 [#21] Armed site security and access-control personnel for Site-34 (personnel_security recurring cost).
Medical Officer 3 [#11, #12] Medical staff for acute treatment, amnestic administration, and long-term POI care.
Administrative Staff 4 [#20, #23] Administrative, legal, and data-archive staff supporting operations and cover-story paperwork.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates use broad midpoints across wide ranges and must account for two binary uncertainties: whether anomalous capital hardware (MSRA, telekill tech) is already available and the ultimate scale of human fallout/POIs. Historical single incident provides limited frequency data; many items (MSRA procurement, endowment size, POI counts) are highly uncertain, so confidence is low.
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