SCP-5747 — SCP-5747 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-5747 Euclid ~ medium confidence

SCP-5747

Expected annual

$16.0M

One-time setup

$112.3M

Annual recurring

$14.4M

Personnel

Initial one-time setup (software, high-altitude sensors, military liaison channels, and a substantial reserve) drives a large up-front cost (~$112.3M). Baseline recurring operations (data acquisition, monitoring, liaison, staffing, legal/PR/training) are approximately $14.4M/yr, with rare incidents that can add millions to hundreds of millions.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $112.3M

Insurance Reserve Fund $105.0M

[#23] Insurance/reserve fund for catastrophic legal/commercial fallout; range $10M–$200M, midpoint used as a one-time reserve build.

Military Records Channel Setup $2.8M

[#4] One-time establishment of covert/formal channels for military/government flight records; range $500k–$5M, midpoint used.

High Altitude Program Setup $2.8M

[#17] Initial high-altitude research/sensor program setup (equipment + launch vehicles); range $500k–$5M, midpoint used.

Watchdog Software Development $1.6M

[#1] Initial build of central analytics engine, DB design, model-matching rules, QA and external feed integrations; range $750k–$2.5M, midpoint used.

Recordkeeping Initial Setup $175K

[#25] Secure archive initial setup; range $50k–$300k, midpoint used.

Facilities $0

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Equipment $0

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Initial Research And Lab Setup $0

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🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $14.4M/yr

Staff Wages $5.0M/yr

[#5, #8, #18, #22, #24, #25] Aggregated recurring personnel costs covering pilot-monitoring analysts, rapid-response duty staff, forensic/research team salaries, intelligence/CI staff, medical oversight, and records administration (combined estimate from listed ranges).

Cover Story And Legal $3.0M/yr

[#6] Legal/cover operations, buyouts and retirements; example aggregate budget range $1M–$10M/yr for dozens of cases — midpoint-style operational budget chosen.

Contingency Legal Diplomatic $2.6M/yr

[#20] Annual contingency reserve for lawsuits/diplomatic fallout; range $250k–$5M/yr, midpoint used; large-incident holds ($1M–$50M) are modeled in scenarios.

Research And Monitoring $2.0M/yr

[#2, #3, #14] Watchdog ops & maintenance (#2: $120k–$400k), data acquisition/subscriptions (#3: $200k–$1M), and manufacturer liaison/order-monitoring program (#14: $300k–$2M); combined midpoint estimate.

Surveillance Program $600K/yr

[#7] Ongoing surveillance/post-revocation monitoring baseline; range $200k–$1M/yr, midpoint used.

Military Records Maintenance $600K/yr

[#4] Ongoing maintenance/liaison costs for military/government flight-record channels; range $200k–$1M/yr, midpoint used.

Training And Exercises $350K/yr

[#21] Regular drills with ATC/MTFs and partners; range $100k–$600k/yr, midpoint used.

Public Relations Budget $200K/yr

[#19] Baseline PR/disinformation capability; baseline $200k/yr and $10k–$500k per event for active campaigns.

Facilities Maintenance $0/yr

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Supplies And Consumables $0/yr

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Logistics And Transport $0/yr

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Airspace Closure Cost Per Event $0/yr

[#9] Per-event economic impact of 50 km closure: $300k–$10M per event (typical $1M–$3M). Set to 0 as a per-event incremental cost used in scenarios.

Enforcement Assets Cost Per Event $0/yr

[#10] Per-event costs for interceptors/AWACS/ground enforcement: $50k–$1M per event. Set to 0 here; used in scenario modeling.

Witness Apprehension Cost Per Witness $0/yr

[#11] Per-witness capture/amnesticization cost: $1k–$10k per witness; per-event totals modeled in scenarios.

Subject Amnesticization Cost Per Subject $0/yr

[#12] Per-subject amnesticization/false-memory implantation: realistic working range $20k–$100k; per-event use in scenarios.

Financial Interception Cost Per Event $0/yr

[#13] Forensic accounting / rapid seizure cost per incident: $1k–$50k (typically <$10k). Modeled per-event.

Aircraft Sequestration Cost Per Incident $0/yr

[#15] Per-incident sequestration/capture/cancellation costs for requisitioned aircraft: $0.5M–$400M+, typical mitigation $0.5M–$10M; modeled as per-incident incremental cost.

Aircraft Storage Maintenance Per Aircraft Per Year $0/yr

[#16] Long-term storage & maintenance per confiscated aircraft: $120k–$1.8M/yr per aircraft; set to 0 here and applied in scenarios when assets exist.

High Altitude Campaign Cost Per Campaign $0/yr

[#17] Per-experiment / campaign costs: $20k–$200k per campaign; satellite tasking $100k+ per task. Initial program cost accounted in one-time setup.

Intelligence Counterintelligence $0/yr

[#22] Monitoring for leaks/journalistic inquiries and OPSEC; baseline personnel costs included in staff_wages (#22 included). Non-salary activity budget captured elsewhere.

Recordkeeping Maintenance $0/yr

[#25] Ongoing secure archives maintenance ($20k–$100k/yr); recurring archival/administration costs included in staff_wages and one-time setup accounted separately.

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $14.4M/yr

80.0% probability / year

Normal year with routine monitoring, liaison, maintenance, and training; no major public incidents or aircraft requisitions.

no_public_incident routine_operations

🚨 Minor Incident $17.0M/yr

15.0% probability / year +$2.7M vs baseline

Moderate airspace closure / local witnessed event with limited fallout requiring closures, witness amnesticization, PR and legal containment.

moderate_traffic_closure dozens_of_witnesses limited_legal_fallout

🚨 Major Incident $39.6M/yr

5.0% probability / year +$25.2M vs baseline

Large-scale incident such as a gold-plated aircraft requisition or high-traffic airspace closure with multinational legal and sequestration costs.

aircraft_requisition large_airspace_disruption international_legal_fallout

👥 Personnel 43 total

Role	Count	Notes
Research Scientist	9	Forensic scientists, atmospheric chemists, spectroscopists; average assumed salary used in staff_wages allocation.
Security Officer / MTF Agent	10	Rapid-response and field enforcement personnel; included in staff_wages.
Intelligence / CI Analyst	6	Leak monitoring, counterintelligence, and OPSEC staff; included in staff_wages.
Legal / Liaison Officer	3	Legal cover, regulatory liaison, manufacturer/government contacts; included in staff_wages.
Administrative Staff	7	Administrative support for records, logistics, and program management; included in staff_wages.
Medical Officer / Psychologist	2	Amnesticization oversight, medical complications handling; included in staff_wages.
Data Engineer / DevOps	6	Watchdog software ops, telemetry, and cloud hosting support; included in staff_wages.

📋 Confidence Notes

Estimates are midpoints derived from wide ranges in analyst notes; recurring operational budgets are reasonably well-constrained but per-incident costs (aircraft sequestration, international legal fallout) are highly uncertain and can vary by orders of magnitude, so overall confidence is medium.

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