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SCP-6819 Keter/Uncontained ~ medium confidence
SCP-6819
Expected annual
$16.3M
One-time setup
$28.2M
Annual recurring
$16.1M
Personnel
88
Estimated immediate one-time costs are approximately $28.2M driven mainly by research/test-facility buildout, R&D capital, vehicle-replacement and contingency reserves; ongoing annual costs are ~ $16.1M driven by staff wages, escorts/emergency response, logistics, and continuing R&D/data analysis.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $28.2M
Initial Research And Lab Setup $12.1M
[#7, #13, #21] Initial R&D/lab buildout and specialty rigs ($1.5M), initial amnestic stock/production capacity ($600k), and initial capital for experimental countermeasure program ($10M).
Contingency Reserve $10.0M
[#23] One-time contingency reserve for large-scale incidents, litigation, or catastrophic cover-up costs.
Facilities $2.0M
[#8] Capital for constructing/leasing controlled test ranges and secure vehicle testbed facilities.
Vehicle Replacement Reserve $2.0M
[#10] One-time reserve for immediate vehicle replacement/spare vehicles.
Equipment $1.1M
[#5, #24] Fleet hardware retrofits (occupancy sensors, GPS lockouts, SATCOM/remote kill approx. $850k) and one-time record/asset security upgrades ($200k).
Travel It Development $400K
[#2] One-time development cost for travel-compliance IT system (backend, mobile apps, integration).
Initial Training $350K
[#17] Initial simulator and driver/security training rollout (one-time course development and initial delivery).
Policy And Legal Rollout $275K
[#1] One-time policy/legal drafting, contracts, NDAs, MOUs, HR implementation and training materials.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $16.1M/yr
Staff Wages $7.5M/yr
[#3, #18, #7, #4, #9, #19] Salaries and benefits for 24/7 monitoring/operations center staff, research scientists/technicians, escort personnel, emergency/response crews, HR/admin and forensic analysts (bulk of recurring labor costs).
Logistics And Transport $2.9M/yr
[#4, #9, #15, #20, #10, #25] Night-escort program vehicle/operational costs, emergency response vehicle/upkeep, alternative-travel subsidies, secure transport/carrier costs, recurring vehicle replacement replenishment, and contractor indemnity loadings.
Research And Monitoring $2.5M/yr
[#6, #7, #19, #22, #21] Secure data storage/analytics, non-salary R&D budgets, forensic lab consumables/analysis, communications/media monitoring, and recurring experimental countermeasure program costs (non-wage).
Cover Story And Legal $1.1M/yr
[#11, #12] Recurring insurance/legal defense fund costs and public cover operations / liaison budgets.
Facilities Maintenance $700K/yr
[#8, #24] Test range and facility operations/maintenance and recurring record/asset monitoring infrastructure costs.
Productivity Loss $500K/yr
[#16] Estimated recurring productivity and overtime payroll increases for units restricted from night travel (2–10% payroll impact modeled).
Supplies And Consumables $400K/yr
[#13] Recurring amnestic production, administration supplies and counseling-related consumables.
Alumni Monitoring $300K/yr
[#14] Recurring costs to monitor former employees, provide automated alerts, stipends/buyouts, and outreach to alumni.
Recurring Training $150K/yr
[#17] Annual refresher training, simulator time and legal briefings for drivers/security.
Travel It Hosting $120K/yr
[#2] Recurring hosting, secure hosting & maintenance for the travel-compliance IT system (monthly hosting and maintenance).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $16.1M/yr
75.0% probability / year
Normal year with recurring operations (monitoring, R&D, escorts, cover operations) and no large incidents requiring contingency usage.
no_major_incidents routine_incident_rate
🚨 Minor Incident $16.3M/yr
20.0% probability / year +$250K vs baseline
Single or a few localized incidents requiring extra emergency response, per-incident amnestics/admin, vehicle replacement(s), and modest additional PR/cover costs.
isolated_SCP_event small_public_exposure
🚨 Major Incident $18.1M/yr
4.5% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Larger multi-vehicle incident or series of incidents in a region requiring major investigations, larger settlements, replacement of multiple vehicles, and surge response.
regional_multi-vehicle_incident extended_public_exposure
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $41.1M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$25.0M vs baseline
Mass-casualty or high-visibility chain-reaction event requiring use of contingency reserves, major legal settlements, nationwide PR/cover-up operations and multi-year recovery.
mass_casualty_event public_exposure_and_litigation
👥 Personnel 88 total
Role Count Notes
Monitoring Operator / Dispatcher 40 [#3] 24/7 operations center staff and supervisors to monitor travel IT and dispatch responses.
Escort Team Member / Security Officer 12 [#4] Full-time and on-call escort personnel to maintain multi-occupant travel and provide escorts at night.
Emergency Response / Paramedic & Rescue Crew 10 [#9] Trauma-trained rapid-response teams including medics and tow/vehicle recovery staff.
Research Scientist 20 [#7, #21] R&D staff working on trigger mechanics, countermeasure development and experiments.
Forensic Analyst / Lab Technician 4 [#19] Forensic and evidence-preservation analysts for incident follow-up and data analysis.
HR / Administrative Staff 2 [#18, #14] HR and administrative personnel to manage employee tracking, alumni outreach and policy implementation.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates combine detailed analyst ranges but many inputs (trigger frequency, scope of R&D, incident severity distribution) are uncertain; multiple line items are large-range judgments so point estimates are medium-confidence.
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