SCP-7086 — SCP-7086 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-7086 Keter ~ medium confidence

SCP-7086

Expected annual

$312.9M

One-time setup

$80.0M

Annual recurring

$279.9M

Personnel

497

Estimated one-time startup costs are approximately $80,000,000 and recurring annual costs are approximately $279,900,000; the largest recurring drivers are embedded/undercover operatives, media/PR and outreach programs, and recurring witness/protection and influence expenditures.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $80.0M

Equipment $34.0M

[#5, #7, #15, #16] Recruitment/on-boarding systems (#5: $5,500,000), OSINT/analytics platform development (#7: $20,000,000), covert technical procurement (#15: $3,500,000), secure data/archive hardware & infra setup (#16: $5,000,000).

Facilities $31.0M

[#1, #6, #19] Central Program HQ buildout (#1: $12,000,000), safehouse/hub setup (#6: $7,500,000), and regional contingency secure detention facility setup (#19: $11,500,000).

Initial Research And Lab Setup $5.0M

[#4, #13] Undercover training center & curricula buildout (#4: $3,000,000) and longitudinal research lab/kit setup (#13: $2,000,000).

Legal Diplomatic Setup $3.5M

[#11] One-time setup costs for retained counsel, diplomatic registration and initial liaison agreements.

Front Org Seed Funding $2.0M

[#9] Seed funding for academic/ideological front organizations and initial grants/launch costs.

Witness Protection Setup $2.0M

[#17] Initial setup for witness protection / relocation & extraction fund and administrative setup.

Credibility Artifacts Setup $1.2M

[#24] One-time production/archival seeding of credibility artifacts, fabricated historical material, and initial distributions.

Periodic Deep Audit $1.2M

[#27] One-time cost for an infrequent (3–5 year) deep program audit / strategic re-evaluation.

Emergency Suppression Reserve $0

[#18] Large one-time emergency suppression reserve is a policy option; baseline excludes a dedicated large one-time reserve (handled in scenarios).

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $279.9M/yr

Embedded Operatives $80.0M/yr

[#3] Recurring fully-burdened costs for embedded field operatives (mid-case ~400 operatives × ~$200k/yr).

Media And Pr $30.0M/yr

[#10] Media production, ad buys, influencer partnerships, sponsored content and regional communications budgets.

Population Support Programs $25.0M/yr

[#25] Monitoring and public education programs, helplines and social programming targeted at affected cohorts.

Outreach And Counseling $20.0M/yr

[#14] Public-facing counseling programs, hotlines, clinics, secular memorial groups, and community programming.

Facilities Maintenance $17.2M/yr

[#1, #6, #16, #19] HQ operations and accreditation staffing/ops (#1: $5,500,000), safehouse leases & maintenance (#6: $5,500,000), secure data infra operations/hosting (#16: $2,250,000), and contingency detention facility operations (#19: $4,000,000).

Cover Story And Legal $15.0M/yr

[#11] Recurring legal, diplomatic, retained counsel, liaison costs, and litigation reserves to maintain plausible deniability and influence local jurisdictions.

Direct Influence $12.0M/yr

[#12] Local grants, sponsorships, small influence payments and emergency payouts to assets and community figures.

Witness Protection Fund Annual $11.5M/yr

[#17] Ongoing reserve for relocation, extraction, and long-term witness protection maintenance.

Osint And Analytics Operations $10.5M/yr

[#7] Cloud compute, licensing, continuous OSINT monitoring, analytics platform operations and analyst support.

Recruitment And Vetting $9.0M/yr

[#5] Ongoing recruitment, background investigations, cover creation, digital identity maintenance, and on-boarding funds.

Academic Front Operations $9.0M/yr

[#9] Ongoing funding for think tanks, journals, conferences, and seeded academic grants to normalize narratives.

Logistics And Transport $8.5M/yr

[#21] International travel, shipping, field allowances, and transport for agents, researchers, and materials.

Asset Payments And Informants $8.0M/yr

[#20] Stipends, informant payments, recruiting defectors and friendly clergy stipends.

Research And Monitoring $6.5M/yr

[#7, #8, #13] OSINT analytics operations partially separated (see custom), translation/localization and cultural research (#8: $2,000,000), longitudinal studies & human-subjects research staff and study costs (#13: $4,500,000).

Staff Wages $6.0M/yr

[#2] Program staffing (analysts, program managers, legal, finance, HR, admin) recurring salaries + benefits + overhead.

Communications And Cyber Security $4.0M/yr

[#26] Ongoing communications security, cyber-defenses, secure ops, and synthetic attribution capabilities.

Insurance And Indemnity $2.0M/yr

[#22] Liability insurance for fronts, indemnity pools for agents and legal judgments.

Undercover Training $1.4M/yr

[#4] Running and refreshing undercover training programs, curricula, languages, and OPSEC training.

Internal Oversight Compliance $1.2M/yr

[#23] Internal auditors, ethics reviews, red-team exercises, and plausible deniability documentation.

Supplies And Consumables $1.0M/yr

[#15] Consumables and replacement/refresh for covert technical equipment and field gear.

Credibility Artifacts Maintenance $1.0M/yr

[#24] Ongoing production and seeding of credibility artifacts, updates to fabricated historical materials, and distribution costs.

Program Review Annual $1.0M/yr

[#27] Annual strategic assessments and tabletop exercises; larger deep reviews are one-time items.

Emergency Suppression Annual Reserve $0/yr

[#18] Baseline excludes a recurring emergency suppression reserve; policy option addressed in scenarios (annual reserve possible $50–150M/yr).

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $279.9M/yr

82.0% probability / year

Normal operational year with no major exposures or activation of large emergency reserves.

steady operations no public exposure routine recruitment and outreach

🚨 Minor Incident $304.9M/yr

10.0% probability / year +$25.0M vs baseline

Localized exposure or leak requiring targeted emergency PR, additional legal actions, temporary relocations, and surge staffing.

localized media leak targeted legal challenge compromised field asset

🚨 Major Breach $829.9M/yr

5.0% probability / year +$550.0M vs baseline

Widespread public exposure or rapid NRM growth forcing activation of a large one-time emergency suppression/normalization fund and major global campaign.

mass influence event viral global NRM adoption high-profile whistleblower or legal case

🚨 Emergency Suppression Fund Inclusion $379.9M/yr

3.0% probability / year +$100.0M vs baseline

Policy decision to permanently include a sizable annual emergency reserve to maintain rapid-response capability.

executive policy change budget reallocation for permanent reserve

👥 Personnel 497 total

Role	Count	Notes
Embedded Operative / Field Agent	400	[#3] Mid-case estimate ~400 embedded operatives (80,000,000 recurring at ~$200k fully-burdened per operative).
Program Staff (Analysts / Managers / Legal / Finance / Admin)	40	[#2] Core program staff estimated 40 FTEs (6,000,000 recurring).
Communications & Cyber-security Team	27	[#26] Cyber/comms team staff covered by recurring communications/cyber security budget (4,000,000 recurring).
Research Scientist / Cultural Researchers	30	[#13, #8] Research & translation staff supported by recurring research budgets (4,500,000 studies + 2,000,000 translation included in research/monitoring).

📋 Confidence Notes

Estimates are based on detailed analyst notes with explicit ranges, but key drivers (number of embedded operatives, scale of outreach, and whether a large emergency reserve is included) are policy-dependent and highly uncertain, so confidence is medium.

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