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SCP-7715 Argus ~ medium confidence
SCP-7715
Expected annual
$2.0M
One-time setup
$15.9M
Annual recurring
$1.8M
Personnel
9
One-time capital costs are dominated by structural remediation, engineered environmental containment, and a large emergency contingency reserve; recurring annual costs are driven by security staff, hazardous waste treatment, specialist consultancy, and ongoing monitoring and maintenance. Baseline setup requires about $15.85M in one-time capital and roughly $1.83M/year to operate in a steady state.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $15.9M
Emergency Contingency Reserve $10.0M
[#18] Large remediation/evacuation/demolition reserve for catastrophic spread into municipal infrastructure; chosen conservatively above minimum.
Facilities $4.9M
[#1, #2, #9, #15] Land purchase (preferred baseline) and structural reinforcement, engineered containment tanks/sumps/berms, and local sewer/septic sealing/easement work; bulk of construction/groundworks.
Alternative Containment R And D $300K
[#28] Seed fund for prototype testing of non-lead daily interventions (chemical/electrical/acoustic).
Equipment $250K
[#6, #14, #19, #7] High-grade monitoring/CCTV/acoustic sensor install, backup generator/UPS installation, initial armory/storage modifications and buffer storage for lead rounds; automated striker/turret purchase set to 0 in baseline (not procured).
Community Relations Initial $125K
[#16] Upfront legal/PR/permit negotiation, initial community compensation and cover-story establishment.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $100K
[#13] Initial specialized laboratory equipment and instrumentation for materials analysis and ontology/spectral testing.
Public Safety Response Planning $100K
[#27] Up-front interagency planning, MOU drafting, and evacuation/exercise planning.
Heavy Mobilization Capex $60K
[#20] One-off heavy-lift or tank-replacement mobilization capital (crane/transport staging).
Initial Detailed Survey $50K
[#23] Initial geotechnical and internal 3D survey to map pipe growth and plan containment access.
Training Initial $25K
[#21] Initial certifications, firearms/HAZMAT training and first full-drill exercise.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.8M/yr
Staff Wages $430K/yr
[#4, #5] On-site armed security rota (6–8 guards including supervisor and rapid response) and a dedicated daily-shooter technician (baseline uses a human operator).
Research And Monitoring $345K/yr
[#13, #23] Ongoing R&D and lab consumables, ontology/spectral monitoring, and routine structural/geotechnical surveys/scans.
Specialized Consultancy $200K/yr
[#12] Plumbing/parascience specialist contracts, travel, and liaison fees (2–4 specialists).
Facilities Maintenance $190K/yr
[#9, #14, #19, #15] Annual operation of containment/treatment systems, sensor/data maintenance, generator fuel & service, and municipal-inspection visits.
Insurance And Bonds $150K/yr
[#17] Environmental liability insurance and required financial assurance/bond payments.
Administrative Overhead $150K/yr
[#25] Program management, accounting, contract administration and indirect costs (10–25% typical).
Hazardous Waste Disposal $125K/yr
[#10] Off-site licensed disposal/treatment contracts for captured liquids/solids (routine estimate; spikes with bursts).
Supplies And Consumables $61K/yr
[#7, #11, #24] Ammunition consumption (~1 round/day), PPE replenishment, neutralizers, seals, adhesives and small tools.
Medical And Psych Monitoring $60K/yr
[#22] Ongoing medical screening, psychological counselling and short-term treatment for spectral exposure effects.
Cover Story And Legal $50K/yr
[#16] Ongoing legal counsel, permit renewals, PR campaigns, and community payments to maintain cover story.
Logistics And Transport $30K/yr
[#20] Routine transport, contractor mobilizations, tank emptying and scheduled heavy deliveries.
Containment Verification Redundancy $30K/yr
[#26] Redundant audit systems, second-team verification, logging and off-site failover checks to ensure daily procedure is executed.
Training Recurring $12K/yr
[#21] Annual recertification, firearms and HAZMAT drills and refresher exercises.
Automated Striker Maintenance $0/yr
[#6] Automated striker/turret maintenance set to 0 in baseline (turret not procured in baseline plan).
Site Lease $0/yr
[#1] Lease option exists but is not chosen in baseline (purchase used instead); lease cost shown as 0 for baseline accounting.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.8M/yr
89.5% probability / year
Normal year with routine operations, no containment breaches or major incidents.
routine_operations scheduled_maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $2.1M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$250K vs baseline
Localized pipe burst or small uncontrolled discharge requiring contractor response and extra disposal.
localized_pipe_burst small_hazardous_discharge short_term_contractors
🚨 Major Breach $3.8M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Significant connection to municipal sewer or multiple bursts requiring major sealing, long-term remediation and public liaison.
municipal_connection extended_remediation large_scale_disposal
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $21.8M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$20.0M vs baseline
Uncontrolled expansion into public infrastructure or large-scale spectral spread requiring demolition, evacuation and mass remediation.
uncontrolled_spread regional_evacuations demolition_and_mass_remediation
👥 Personnel 9 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 8 [#4] 6–8 guard rota including supervisor and rapid response; baseline modeled at 8 personnel.
Technician / Specialist (Daily Shooter) 1 [#5] Dedicated specialist/technician responsible for the daily lead projectile procedure (baseline: human operator).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges, allowing a reasoned estimate, but many large ranges (site purchase vs lease, turret vs human, and catastrophic tail risks) create material uncertainty and dependence on chosen baseline options.
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