SCP-8385 — SCP-8385 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-8385 Neutralized ~ medium confidence

SCP-8385

Expected annual

$3.5M

One-time setup

$7.0M

Annual recurring

$3.2M

Personnel

One-time wind-down costs are estimated at approximately $6.97M, driven primarily by statutory compensation, ticket refunds and associated reimbursements; recurring annual costs are about $3.16M/yr driven by claims-processing staff, aircraft storage/security, legal exposure and ongoing care for sapient dodo personnel.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $7.0M

Compensation Payouts $2.8M

[#1] One-time statutory EU-261 compensation payouts (moderate scenario ~10,000 claims, €2.5M converted to USD).

Ticket Refunds And Ancillaries $1.3M

[#2] Full refunds of fares and ancillary fees (example: €1.15M for 10,000 tickets + ancillaries).

Care Reimbursements $550K

[#3] Reimbursement for meals/hotels/transfers for stranded passengers (moderate estimate €500k).

Initial Research And Lab Setup $330K

[#14] Initial memetics/anomalous investigation team and secure lab/archive setup (mid-range estimate).

Insurance Contingency One Time $330K

[#12] One-time contingency/top-up to insurance or insurer buyout reserve (mid-range).

Decommissioning And Sale Scrap Ferrying $220K

[#11] Deregistration/ferry/scrap/sale costs for fleet (mid-range estimate).

Regulatory Fines And Reserve One Time $220K

[#19] Contingent one-time regulatory fines / penalties reserve (precautionary mid-range).

Contingency Initial Allocation $220K

[#20] Initial contingency allocation to cover unforeseen wind-down costs (one-time).

Surge Contractors $220K

[#5] Short-term surge contractor budget to clear claim backlogs (one-time surge contractors, midpoint €200k).

Internal Investigation And Overhead $176K

[#16] Internal Foundation case officers, short-term team & liaison travel (5 people for 3–6 months + travel).

Pr And Cover Operations $143K

[#8] Crisis PR, multilingual materials and initial cover/story operations (mid-range estimate).

Legal Retainer And One Time $110K

[#7] External legal retainer / initial compliance advice (midpoint €100k).

Airport Settlements And One Time Fees $110K

[#9] One-time settlements/handler/airport claims related to cancelled operations (baseline settlement estimate).

Gdpr Remediation And It Legal $110K

[#15] One-time legal & IT remediation for personal data handling and notifications (midpoint).

Claims Platform Build $88K

[#4] One-time secure claims portal build/adaptation (midpoint €80k).

Dodo Relocation And Retraining $55K

[#13] One-time relocation, guardianship/legal setup and retraining/rehoming costs for sapient dodo personnel.

Translation And Localisation One Time $33K

[#17] One-time translation/localisation of claim forms and legal texts.

Records And Evidence Storage One Time $28K

[#18] Secure archival of digital/physical evidence and chain-of-custody preservation (one-time).

Hotline Voip Setup $11K

[#6] VOIP/telecom one-time setup for redirected hotline.

Facilities $0

[] No dedicated construction or structural work required per analyst notes.

Equipment $0

[] No dedicated equipment purchases identified.

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $3.2M/yr

Cover Story And Legal $693K/yr

[#6, #7, #15, #17] Ongoing hotline legal staffing, external legal exposure reserve (annualized) and recurring GDPR/legal communications and translation costs.

Staff Wages $578K/yr

[#5] Administrative claims handlers / legal assistants (≈10 FTEs, fully loaded mid-range).

Facilities Maintenance $506K/yr

[#10] Aircraft storage/parking/hangar fees plus security & insurance while grounded (annualized estimate).

Sapient Dodo Care $495K/yr

[#13] Ongoing housing, veterinary, caretakers and welfare for sapient dodo personnel (moderate population estimate).

Logistics And Transport $396K/yr

[#9] Ongoing ramp/slot/ground-handling monthly charges and logistics until aircraft removed (annualized).

Contingency And Project Manager $220K/yr

[#20] Recurring contingency reserve and project manager to coordinate wind-down until closure.

Insurance Premiums And Adjustments $110K/yr

[#12] Recurring premium adjustments / liability gap fills until wind-up (annualized reserve).

Claims It And Fraud Ops $104K/yr

[#4] Recurring hosting/maintenance and fraud-investigation budget for claims platform (annualized).

Research And Monitoring $55K/yr

[#14] Ongoing memetics/anomalous monitoring and secure archival operations (annualized).

Supplies And Consumables $0/yr

[] No recurring supplies/consumables separately estimated.

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $3.2M/yr

92.0% probability / year

Normal year: program in wind-down mode with recurring claims-processing, storage, legal monitoring and dodo care only; no large additional incidents.

steady moderate claim volume routine legal activity ongoing storage and care obligations

🚨 Minor Incident $5.9M/yr

6.0% probability / year +$2.8M vs baseline

Moderate surge in claim volume, localized litigation or extra operational costs requiring additional payouts and surge staffing.

higher-than-expected claimant counts small class-action suit or airport claim short-term operational extensions

🚨 Major Litigation $13.2M/yr

2.0% probability / year +$10.0M vs baseline

Large-scale litigation, regulatory enforcement and/or very high claimant volume driving multimillion-dollar settlements and fines.

class-action or punitive regulatory fines mass claimant recognition expanded liability beyond insurer limits

👥 Personnel 10 total

Role	Count	Notes
Administrative Staff / Claims Handlers	10	[#5] Core claims-processing team (10 FTEs) reflected in staff_wages recurring estimate.

📋 Confidence Notes

Estimates are medium confidence: legal/regulatory and operational cost categories are well-understood, but the primary drivers (exact claimant counts and number of sapient dodo personnel requiring care/rehoming) are highly uncertain and could shift totals by multiples. Currency conversion and choice of midpoints also introduce uncertainty.

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