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SCP-8659 Unknown ? low confidence
SCP-8659
Expected annual
$18.1M
One-time setup
$71.8M
Annual recurring
$16.4M
Personnel
55
One-time startup costs are estimated at $71,800,000 driven primarily by site acquisition, contingency/liability reserves, and initial R&D/containment buildout; recurring annual costs are estimated at $16,450,000 driven by specialist/security staff, R&D/monitoring, MTF readiness, and legal/cover operations.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $71.8M
Long Term Liability Pv $30.0M
[#29] Present-value long-term liability estimate for care of seven anomalous minors (10–20 year PV rough order).
Facilities $17.6M
[#1, #2, #3, #13, #18, #26, #31] Site acquisition, containment hangar, living/childcare wing buildout, on-site medical clinic, controlled greenhouse baseline build, utilities/infrastructure, and baseline environmental studies.
Contingency Reserve $10.0M
[#24] Seeded contingency / emergency repair / rapid response fund.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $6.5M
[#9, #12, #16, #17, #32] Initial R&D seed labs and instruments, entomology/biology lab setup, secure engineering/testbeds for tech-hardening, teleportation research lab setup, and secure archive/black-ops systems.
Equipment $3.3M
[#5, #8, #19, #20, #21] Mobile outreach vehicles/equipment, sensor/surveillance array installation, containment crates/inventory hardware, EM/electronic countermeasure hardware, and initial transport/heavy-lift gear.
Mtf Initial Deploy Kit $1.2M
[#7] Initial MTF deploy/reserve equipment and specialist rapid-response kits.
Fire Suppression Installation $1.0M
[#10] Novel extinguishing-system R&D and installation (rapid-deploy systems in living areas and hangar).
Initial Insurance $1.0M
[#25] One-time insurance/indemnity setup and initial compensations budget.
Weather Infrastructure $500K
[#11] Weather-mitigation/forecasting infrastructure and regional alerting setup.
Cover Story Setup $500K
[#22] One-time creation of front companies, legal shells, and PR setup.
Inter Goi Goodwill Payments $250K
[#23] Initial one-time goodwill/payments to other GOIs (small seed payments).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $16.4M/yr
Research And Monitoring $4.9M/yr
[#8, #9, #10, #11, #12, #17, #18, #31, #32] Ongoing R&D and monitoring: sensor data processing/satellite time, multi-year suppression/mitigation R&D, fire-suppression testing, weather operations, entomology studies, teleportation-signature work, greenhouse/botanical studies, ecological monitoring, and archival/research upkeep.
Staff Wages $4.7M/yr
[#4, #6, #13, #14, #15, #16] Salaries for ongoing specialists (negotiators/psychologists/linguists), permanent security guards, on-site medical/pediatric staff, long-term stabilization therapists, teachers/tutors, and technical engineering staff.
Cover Story And Legal $1.7M/yr
[#22, #23, #25] Ongoing cover operations, PR/legal costs, inter-GOI diplomacy budgets, and local compensations/settlements.
Mtf Reserve Readiness $1.5M/yr
[#7] Annual costs to maintain tactical MTF reserve readiness, training rotations, and helicopter availability.
Administrative Overhead $1.2M/yr
[#30] Program management, auditing, compliance, IT/HR, and administrative support (estimated 15–25% of operations).
Supplies And Consumables $750K/yr
[#3, #10, #12, #19, #27] Day-to-day consumables: child supplies, fire-suppressant chemicals, entomology/trap materials, containment inventory consumables, and general supply usage.
Utilities And Energy $600K/yr
[#26] Energy, backup power, fuel stock rotation, and UPS/generator maintenance.
Logistics And Transport $500K/yr
[#5, #21] Mobile outreach operational costs (fuel, drivers) and transport retainers/sea-air contracts on standby.
Facilities Maintenance $350K/yr
[#2, #3, #13, #31] Building upkeep and maintenance for hangar, living/childcare wing, medical clinic, and periodic ecological remediation baseline.
Personnel Security Clearances $250K/yr
[#28] Ongoing vetting, reinvestigations, secrecy payments, and retention bonuses.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $16.4M/yr
75.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with no major incidents; recurring staffing, R&D, monitoring, and cover operations proceed as budgeted.
stable_diplomacy routine_research no_breaches
🚨 Minor Incident $18.4M/yr
20.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Localized incident (small uncontrolled fire, brief displacement/evacuation, limited infrastructure damage, or small GOI interference) requiring incident response, repairs, and legal/cover payments.
localized_fire_event temporary_displacement_of_family small_goi_interaction
🚨 Major Breach $41.5M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$25.0M vs baseline
Significant containment failure or large-scale anomalous event (widespread fires, major weather manipulation impacting populace, large-scale GOI conflict) requiring major repairs/rebuild, settlements, and replenishment of contingency/liability funds.
widespread_anomalous_fire region_scale_weather_event major_goi_conflict
👥 Personnel 55 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 30 [#6] 24/7 on-site security personnel trained in non-lethal and child-safe procedures; count chosen from #6 estimate range (20–40).
Specialist (Negotiator / Psychologist / Linguist / Social Worker) 10 [#4] Core diplomatic/psychological team for persuasion/communication; aligns with 8–12 FTEs in #4.
Research Scientist / Engineer (technical team) 6 [#16, #9, #17] On-site engineers and researchers supporting tech-hardening, R&D into suppression/teleportation signatures, and experimental programs.
Medical Officer / Pediatric Staff 3 [#13] On-site clinic staff to handle trauma, anomalous effects, and pediatric care.
Teachers / Tutors / Educational Staff 3 [#15] Full-time educators and recreational/therapeutic staff for the seven minors.
Administrative Staff / Program Management 3 [#30] Program managers, compliance, HR, IT, and administrative support included in overhead.
Therapists / Stabilization Specialists 0 [] Specialist stabilization services (not staffed as separate FTEs beyond the specialists count) are budgeted within specialist and medical lines (#14).
📋 Confidence Notes
Wide estimate ranges and Type-G/unknown anomalous effects create high technical and programmatic uncertainty; many costs (R&D success, containment approach, GOI interactions, and long-term liability) are poorly constrained.
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