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SCP-871 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-871
Expected annual
$30.1M
One-time setup
$87.6M
Annual recurring
$29.2M
Personnel
518
First-year one-time capital costs are dominated by cell construction, site acquisition and a recommended emergency reserve (~$87.6M one-time). Annual recurring operations (human staffing, Class D maintenance, security, cleaning, utilities and research) are the primary ongoing cost drivers (~$29.2M/yr).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $87.6M
Contingency Reserve $50.0M
[#14] Recommended emergency rapid-response / surge capacity reserve fund (conservative planning figure: $50,000,000 one-time).
Facilities $34.2M
[#1, #16] Cell construction for 237 cells at ~$60k each (237 × $60,000 = $14,220,000) plus an assumed modest site acquisition/upgrade ($20,000,000) if new/expanded facilities are required.
Equipment $2.8M
[#2, #3, #4, #6, #12, #8, #22] One-time hardware: metal platters/tables (237 × $2,500 = $592,500), per-cell CCTV/hardware (237 × $2,000 = $474,000), central video/IT one-time hardware ($500,000), guard gear ($2k × 60 = $120,000), vehicle fleet purchase (~$900,000), medical equipment ($150,000), spare-parts stock ($50,000).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $500K
[#13] Research laboratory buildout and containment-capable bench equipment (mid-range estimate $500k).
Initial Sop Development $50K
[#20] Initial SOP development and documentation (~$50k one-time).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $29.2M/yr
Class D Maintenance $12.0M/yr
[#7] Maintenance, housing, medical, food, supervision and recruitment for ~400 Class-D personnel (~$12M/yr mid estimate).
Staff Wages $7.3M/yr
[#5, #6, #8, #9] Wages/benefits for monitoring personnel (~30 operators ≈ $2.25M), armed security staff (~60 guards ≈ $3.6M), on-site medical staffing (~$700k), and cleaning/search staff wages (~$800k).
Food Lodging And Welfare $2.0M/yr
[#11] Food, lodging and welfare for staff and ~400 Class-D personnel (~$2.0M/yr estimate).
Personnel Overhead Multiplier $1.7M/yr
[#24] Scale/coordination overhead applied to recurring personnel totals (20% multiplier applied to staff+research personnel totals ≈ $1.71M/yr).
Facilities Maintenance $1.5M/yr
[#4, #17, #22] Recurring IT/storage maintenance and licenses (~$300k/yr), central utilities/HVAC/power redundancy (~$1,000,000/yr), and miscellaneous equipment maintenance (~$200k/yr).
Supplies And Consumables $1.2M/yr
[#9, #10] Cleaning/disinfection consumables (~$365k/yr) and per-operation disposable PPE/supplies (~$865k/yr).
Research And Monitoring $1.2M/yr
[#13] Ongoing research staffing and consumables to study SCP-871 (estimated ~$1.2M/yr for a small team and lab consumables).
Cover Story And Legal $1.2M/yr
[#15, #18] Legal, cover-up, information-control budget and external audit/compliance (~$1.0M/yr for legal/cover costs + ~$200k/yr for video/data auditing/compliance).
Logistics And Transport $350K/yr
[#12] Fleet operations: drivers, fuel, maintenance (~$200k–$500k/yr; midpoint ~$350k/yr).
Ppe Biodefense $300K/yr
[#23] Contingency for specialized PPE, allergen testing, and remediation (~$100k–$500k/yr).
Training And Drills $150K/yr
[#20] Ongoing training, periodic drills, and SOP refreshers (~$100k–$300k/yr).
Psychological Services $125K/yr
[#21] Counseling and social support for staff and cooperating Class-D (~$50k–$200k/yr).
Disposal And Autopsy $100K/yr
[#19] Disposal, autopsy and biohazard processing for authorized terminations (~$50k–$200k/yr; midpoint used).
Existential Contingency Fund $0/yr
[#25] Existential/outbreak scenario costs are effectively unbounded and not meaningfully quantifiable in routine budgeting; modeled separately in scenarios. Set to $0 here but flagged as catastrophic-risk item.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $29.2M/yr
94.0% probability / year
Normal year with steady-state operations and no major containment incidents.
no breaches normal throughput (237 instances) routine maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $30.2M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Localized incident such as a single-cell tampering, contamination event, or small exposure requiring investigations and temporary surge staffing.
single-cell breach or tampering contamination requiring extra testing small legal/PR incident
🚨 Major Breach $59.2M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$30.0M vs baseline
Partial containment failure or replication acceleration requiring emergency surge operations, large temporary recruitment of consumers and use of contingency reserves.
multi-cell breach rapid instance proliferation locally need to deploy emergency surge capacity
🚨 Catastrophic Outbreak $1.0B/yr
0.1% probability / year +$970.8M vs baseline
Uncontrolled exponential replication escaping standard containment requiring national/international emergency response (mass mobilization, quarantines, possible extinction-level interventions).
replication escapes containment at scale exceeds ten-thousand-instance threshold rapid, uncontrolled growth
👥 Personnel 518 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 60 [#6] ~60 full-time equivalent guards to cover daily escorted consumption operations (staffing and rotation).
CCTV Operator 30 [#5] ~30 operators (10 per shift × 3 shifts) to check feeds every 15 minutes and handle exceptions.
Research Scientist 6 [#13] Lead research scientists studying replication/mitigation (part of the research team).
Lab Technician 4 [#13] Lab technicians supporting experiments and sample handling.
Medical Officer 6 [#8] On-site medics/nurses for immediate care and health monitoring.
Cleaning / Decontamination Staff 12 [#9] Dedicated cleaning/search personnel to process rooms between consumptions.
Class-D Personnel 400 [#7] Pool of ~400 Class-D personnel required to meet throughput (consumption rotations and replacements).
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are based on detailed analyst line-item notes and real-world scaling for 237 instances but rely on many operational assumptions (staffing models, site choice, and Class-D sourcing). The existential outbreak risk is unquantifiable and increases uncertainty.
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