SCP-8849 neutralised ~ medium confidence
SCP-8849
Expected annual
$2.9M
One-time setup
$4.2M
Annual recurring
$2.8M
Personnel
16
Estimated initial one-time setup costs are approximately $4.24M, with recurring annual operations of about $2.84M per year. Main cost drivers are land control (lease), staff wages, field equipment and vehicles, and a sizeable contingency/reserve for unexpected anomalous events.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $4.2M
Equipment $1.1M
[#5, #7, #9, #11, #22] Handheld metal-detectors and spares, UAV fleet purchase/outfitting, field vehicles and trailers, mobile field lab purchase/outfit, and initial monitoring sensor hardware installation.
Contingency Reserve $1.0M
[#24] Contingency/insurance reserve for unexpected anomalous events, legal exposure, whistleblower payouts, or emergency accelerated operations.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $970K
[#1, #16, #23] Initial remote survey/mapping (LIDAR, drone magnetometry, GPR), specialized analytical instruments / materials-analysis capital, and initial data-management / archival server setup for research startup.
Facilities $550K
[#3, #19] Initial ecological remediation/recultivation and security perimeter/fencing/signage setup (site landscaping, erosion control, initial physical perimeter works).
Forensic Initial Reserve $250K
[#17] Initial forensic-processing and human-remains handling reserve for identification, mortuary, and repatriation costs.
Legal And Cover Story Setup $200K
[#20] Upfront legal, public-affairs, and cover-story setup (permits, initial PR contractors, establishment of cover identities).
Emergency Response Cache $200K
[#25] One-time purchase of rapid-response cache and emergency equipment (medevac/first-response kits).
Land Purchase $0
[] Land purchase not selected in this strategy; opting for lease/compensation (recurring).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.8M/yr
Staff Wages $800K/yr
[#13] Salaries for operational staffing: 16FTEs (12 patrol operatives + 2 supervisors + 2 technicians/archaeologists) at an assumed average ~$50k/FTE/yr.
Land Lease And Local Compensation $500K/yr
[#2] Recurring lease/compensation strategy selected instead of outright land purchase; annual payments to landowners/municipalities and local access-control compensation to maintain operational control and secrecy.
Research And Monitoring $450K/yr
[#14, #15, #17, #23] Annual contracted excavation seasons/heavy-equipment hire, lab analysis and outsourced specialized tests, recurring forensic processing costs, and ongoing data management/archival operations.
Logistics And Transport $270K/yr
[#8, #10, #18] UAV operations and data analysis, vehicle fuel/insurance/servicing for field fleet, and secure transport / evidence transfer (armored courier / occasional airlift).
Administrative Overhead $258K/yr
[#26] Administrative overhead (finance, HR, procurement, compliance), estimated as 10% of recurring operational budget (before overhead).
Cover Story And Legal $200K/yr
[#20] Ongoing legal, public-affairs, payments to local authorities, PR contractors and cover-story maintenance costs.
Facilities Maintenance $150K/yr
[#4, #12, #19, #22] Ongoing habitat maintenance/revegetation upkeep, site utilities and power (generator/solar maintenance), recurring security patrols/site-control, and sensor comms/maintenance.
Emergency Response Retainer $150K/yr
[#25] Medevac/airlift contract retainer and standby rapid-response services.
Supplies And Consumables $60K/yr
[#6, #21] Detector batteries, replacement parts and consumables, PPE, and environmental/hazardous-materials disposal and decontamination consumables.
Lifecycle Projection Summary $0/yr
[#27] Lifecycle projection to March 2098 referenced in analyst notes; included as a planning reference rather than a separate recurring cost line.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.8M/yr
91.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with no significant discoveries or incidents; routine patrols, maintenance, and scheduled research.
routine_operations scheduled_excavation_season no_unexpected_discoveries
🚨 Minor Incident $3.1M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$300K vs baseline
Localized unexpected discovery requiring additional targeted excavation, extra lab testing, hazardous disposal and transport of materials.
localized_discovery evidence_of_hazard increased_excavation
🚨 Major Breach $7.8M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Significant anomalous activity or public exposure requiring emergency response, large-scale remediation, legal payouts and possible accelerated containment actions.
public_exposure large_scale_hazard mass_recovery_or_evacuations
👥 Personnel 16 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 12 [#13] Three patrol teams of 4 operatives to conduct sweeps and site-control.
Supervisor / Field Lead 2 [#13] Team supervisors / shift leads for operational oversight.
Research Scientist / Archaeologist 2 [#13] Technicians / archaeologists for recovery, documentation, and liaison with labs.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates use concrete line-item examples from analyst notes but remain uncertain due to the binary land-control decision (purchase vs lease), variable discovery risk, and unknowns if recovered material proves actively hazardous; contingency and scenario buffers added to reflect this uncertainty. Key uncertain items: [#2, #24, #27].
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