SCP-9832 — SCP-9832 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-9832 Thaumiel ~ medium confidence

SCP-9832

Expected annual

$62.7M

One-time setup

$58.5M

Annual recurring

$61.1M

Personnel

First-year one-time capital and setup costs are approximately $58.5M with ongoing annual operating costs ~ $61.1M; main drivers are facility construction and hardening, personnel and medical surveillance, raw-material scarcity and per-dose manufacturing, and large contingency/reserve funds. Analyst scale scenarios (notes #29 and #30) indicate first-year program costs could range widely depending on scale and outsourcing choices.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $58.5M

Facilities $20.0M

[#1, #16, #21] Cleanroom/manufacturing facility construction, initial site hardening and quarantine ward build-outs; includes gowning areas, HVAC validation and structural work for containment and isolation.

Opportunity Risk Reserve $20.0M

[#24] Program risk capital / insurance reserve for large escalatory recontainment/legal actions (one-time capital set-aside).

Equipment $5.2M

[#2, #20] Manufacturing and laboratory equipment (bioreactors, HPLC/GC/MS, sterile fillers, lyophilizers, autoclaves) plus cryostorage hardware.

Personnel Training Initial $5.0M

[#10] Initial cognitive-safety training and certification for large initial cohort (simulator training, baseline testing).

Mass Dosing Campaign $3.5M

[#11] Initial mass administration campaign logistics: staffing, scheduling, on-site observation, record-keeping for first rollout.

Personnel Vetting One Time $1.5M

[#8] Initial background investigations and high-level clearance processing for initial vetted staff.

Secure Info Storage $1.0M

[#7] Air-gapped servers, hardware security modules, encrypted backups and tamper-evident audit log systems setup.

Cold Chain And Storage Infrastructure $500K

[#6] Ultra-low freezers, temperature-controlled containers, monitoring systems and initial backup power provisioning.

Inventory System One Time $500K

[#18] Secure dose-tracking software and tamper-evident chain-of-custody system customization.

Pharmacovigilance It One Time $500K

[#27] Initial secure IT systems build for adverse-event logging and cognitive-effect databases.

Legal And Cover Setup $500K

[#17] Initial setup for cover-story infrastructure, shell entities, and legal/PR groundwork.

Communications Security One Time $200K

[#25] Development of cognitohazard-neutral messaging protocols and initial materials to safely communicate about the serum.

Ppe One Time $100K

[#22] Initial purchase of specialized PPE, powered respirators and decontamination gear for production handlers.

Initial Research And Lab Setup $0

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🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $61.1M/yr

Long Term Medical Surveillance $10.0M/yr

[#12] Annual neurocognitive testing, imaging, pharmacovigilance and follow-up care for inoculated population.

Adverse Event Reserve $10.0M/yr

[#13] Annual reserve/contingency set aside to handle adverse events, acute care and emergency R&D responses (5–20% style reserve).

Replacement And Recall Losses $10.0M/yr

[#26] Annual losses from expired/recall waste and replacement manufacturing (shelf-life and wastage rates).

Staff Wages $8.0M/yr

[#9, #23] Annual payroll for medical staff, scientists, QC/production techs, program administrators and support personnel.

Raw Materials $8.0M/yr

[#3] Recurring cost of biological starting materials and GMP reagents per production program assumptions.

Ongoing R&D $5.0M/yr

[#14] Continued mechanism-of-action research, formulation optimization and controlled trials.

Security And Hardening $2.5M/yr

[#16] Recurring armed security, biometric access control maintenance and intrusion-detection operations across production and storage sites.

Cover Story And Legal $2.0M/yr

[#17] Ongoing legal, PR and cover-story operations, FOIA handling and related activities.

Personnel Training Refreshers $1.0M/yr

[#10] Annual refresher training and recertification for staff handling cognitohazard-safe procedures.

Quarantine Operations $1.0M/yr

[#21] Staffing and operational costs to run isolation/quarantine wards for affected cohorts.

Facilities Maintenance $500K/yr

[#6, #16] Routine facility maintenance including HVAC validation, sterile environment upkeep, generator/test cycles and utilities.

Logistics And Transport $500K/yr

[#15, #7] Secure transport operations for routine shipments and costs associated with secure couriering of sensitive backups.

Personnel Vetting Recurring $500K/yr

[#8] Renewal background checks, continuous monitoring and psych evaluations for vetted staff.

External Consulting $500K/yr

[#28] Fees for external specialists, ethics oversight and advisory consultations.

Pharmacovigilance It Ops $300K/yr

[#27] Operations and hosting for secure adverse-event databases and analytics.

Supplies And Consumables $200K/yr

[#3, #4, #22] General disposable consumables not otherwise broken out (supplement to raw materials and per-dose items).

Per Dose Consumables $200K/yr

[#4] Vials, stoppers, tamper-evident seals, syringes and cold-chain packaging per annual throughput.

Batch Qc $200K/yr

[#5] Per-batch sterility, potency, endotoxin and analytical testing across expected batch frequency.

Secure Info Maintenance $200K/yr

[#7] Ongoing maintenance, rotation and couriering costs for secure backup infrastructure and HSM maintenance.

Inventory Ops $150K/yr

[#18] Operations and license/support fees for dose tracking, lot control and secure destruction workflows.

Cold Chain Maintenance $100K/yr

[#6] Energy, monitoring, and maintenance for refrigeration and ultra-low freezers.

Communications Security Recurring $100K/yr

[#25] Annual refreshers and updates to cognitohazard-safe messaging protocols.

Waste Handling $50K/yr

[#19] Biohazardous waste disposal, solvent disposal and decontamination services.

Cryostorage Maintenance $50K/yr

[#20] Monitoring and maintenance for cryogenic sample stores holding original anomalous material.

Ppe Replacement $50K/yr

[#22] Ongoing replacement and consumable costs for specialized PPE and decon supplies.

Research And Monitoring $0/yr

[]

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $61.1M/yr

91.0% probability / year

Normal operational year with no major incidents; routine manufacturing, surveillance, and contingency funding.

routine production regular surveillance no breaches

🚨 Minor Incident $63.1M/yr

6.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline

Localized containment or adverse-event cluster requiring emergency treatment, limited recall and short-term extra security.

localized contamination small-scale adverse-event cluster limited recall and treatment

🚨 Major Breach $111.1M/yr

3.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline

Significant leak or misuse requiring large-scale recontainment, legal/PR actions, mass medical response and program-wide recall.

mass exposure or civilian leak coordinated malicious use program-wide recontainment operations

👥 Personnel 86 total

Role	Count	Notes
Research Scientist	10	Senior scientists overseeing formulation and R&D (mapped to #14, #23).
Medical Officer / Nurses	20	Physicians and nurses for administration and acute care (mapped to #9, #12).
QC / Lab Technicians	20	Batch QC, sterility testing and production technicians (mapped to #5, #23).
Security Officer / MTF Agent	15	Armed guards and site security personnel for hardened sites (mapped to #16).
Administrative Staff	10	Program administration, record-keeping and logistics (mapped to #11, #18, #23).
Engineer / Maintenance	5	Facilities, HVAC and equipment maintenance (mapped to #1, #6).
IT / Data Security	5	Secure information storage and pharmacovigilance IT operations (mapped to #7, #27).
Site Director / Executive Staff	1	Program leadership and liaison with governance (mapped to #17, #23).

📋 Confidence Notes

Estimates are order-of-magnitude and built from wide ranges in analyst notes; key uncertainties include per-dose synthesis complexity, reliance on scarce anomalous inputs, desired inoculation scale, and policy choices (outsourcing vs in-house).

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