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SCP-9948 Neutralised ~ medium confidence
SCP-9948
Expected annual
$4.1M
One-time setup
$6.7M
Annual recurring
$3.8M
Personnel
39
One-time capital/setup costs are dominated by a liquid contingency/reserve and equipment/vehicle purchases, totaling $6,722,000; baseline recurring operating costs (monitoring, staffing, intelligence, medical and community programs) are about $3,773,000/yr, driven mainly by staff wages, intelligence subscriptions/informants and community/medical programs.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $6.7M
Contingency Reserve $3.5M
[#16] Liquid reserve/fund for rapid escalation (airlifts, mass medical response, lockdowns); central one-time allocation.
Equipment $1.2M
[#5, #6, #12, #13, #14] Intelligence hardware (drones/cameras), rapid-response/armored vehicles, secure comms/servers, generators for remote posts, and light transport fleet.
Facilities $860K
[#1, #7, #17] Regional watchpost fit-outs, secure detention buildout/retrofit, and autopsy lab augmentation (sum of per-item estimates).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $375K
[#9, #10] Forensic/neurological lab equipment and historical/archival collection/digitization costs.
Covert Cushion $300K
[#20] One-time initial covert-activity cushion/off-books allowance for unreportable expenditures.
Training Curriculum $200K
[#11] One-time development and initial rollout of training curriculum for local forces and first-responders.
Legal And Pr Retainer $150K
[#15] Emergency legal/PR retainer and related one-time cover-up/diplomatic contingency.
Propaganda Production $50K
[#4] One-time creative/production and pilot distribution costs for isiXhosa-appropriate PSYOP materials.
Liaison Relocation $40K
[#3] Initial travel/relocation costs for embedded liaison officers.
Ethics System Integration $25K
[#18] One-time ethics oversight and documentation/redaction system integration.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $3.8M/yr
Staff Wages $1.6M/yr
[#2, #3, #7, #9, #14, #17] Watchpost security/watch officers (3 posts), embedded liaison officers, detention staffing, researcher salaries (partial), driver/logistics wages and pathology staff portion.
Supplies And Consumables $510K/yr
[#7, #8, #17, #18] Medical supplies and staffing/supplies for secure detention, psychiatric/medical treatment budgets, mortuary/disposal recurring costs, and staff mental-health/resilience services.
Facilities Maintenance $290K/yr
[#1, #13] Ongoing watchpost utilities/maintenance and generator/fuel-system maintenance.
Intelligence Ops $225K/yr
[#5] Annual SIGINT/IMINT subscriptions, satellite imagery/data fees and informant payments.
Community Programs $225K/yr
[#19] Community stabilization, livelihoods, microgrants and scholarship programs to reduce recruitment drivers.
Insurance And Off Books $175K/yr
[#20] Recurring insurance, off-books contingency and loss allowances for covert activity write-offs.
Cover Story And Legal $150K/yr
[#15] Recurring diplomatic/quiet-payments, legal retainers and PR/cover-story budget.
Research And Monitoring $148K/yr
[#9, #10] Recurring research costs: scans, consultant fees, external collaborations and archival/translation stipends.
Rapid Response Ops $145K/yr
[#6] Annual training/exercises, consumables and non-lethal equipment/ammunition for rapid response unit.
Logistics And Transport $100K/yr
[#14] Routine vehicle maintenance, spare parts, off-road equipment maintenance and non-armored fleet fuel for patrols (maintenance portion).
Training And Capacity Building $75K/yr
[#11] Ongoing refresher courses and train-the-trainer follow-ups for local forces and first-responders.
Propaganda And Outreach $60K/yr
[#4] Recurring distribution, airtime and refreshes for PSYOP campaign.
Comms And Cybersecurity $60K/yr
[#12] Recurring comms subscriptions, secure comms airtime, cyber-security audits and hosting.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $3.8M/yr
84.0% probability / year
Normal, uneventful year of monitoring and maintenance with no major incidents or reactivation.
steady low-level monitoring no localized flare routine intelligence collection
🚨 Minor Incident $4.3M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Localized flare or small outbreak requiring additional medical treatment, short-term surge deployments and limited PR/liaison activity.
localized violence/riot cluster of acute cases requiring inpatient care
🚨 Major Reactivation $6.8M/yr
4.0% probability / year +$3.0M vs baseline
Significant reactivation leading to sustained regional violence requiring multi-week surge operations and reserve drawdown.
widespread compulsion cases coordinated militant actions
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $11.8M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$8.0M vs baseline
Large-scale, sustained outbreak with extensive violence and mass casualty response, requiring months-long emergency funding and international-level containment.
mass psychogenic/psionic activation failure of local authorities and need for regional lockdown
👥 Personnel 39 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / Watch Officer 27 [#2] Three watchposts with ~9 staff/post for 24/7 coverage (guards, watch officers, medics, local contractors).
Embedded Liaison Officer 4 [#3] Four liaison officers embedded with local defence/intel agencies (senior/expat rates).
Research Scientist 3 [#9] Forensic/neurological researchers (salaries portion of recurring research budget).
Medical Officer / Psychiatrist 2 [#7, #8] Detention/medical assessment staff and psychiatric care capacity for afflicted individuals.
Driver / Logistics 2 [#14, #6] Drivers for transport patrols and rapid-response vehicles (wage portion included in staff_wages).
Pathologist / Mortuary Technician 1 [#17] Mortuary and forensic pathology staff (partial wage allocation in recurring costs).
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are based on detailed line-item analyst notes with ranges; however many items (contingency reserve size, likelihood of reactivation, mix of contractor vs expatriate staffing) are uncertain, producing moderate confidence.
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